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  • Intel brief on Sudan

    Date: Situation as of 12/09/2023 Location: Khartoum, Sudan Who's involved: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Security situation developments: Throughout August, the conflict spread around the country, with the RSF and SAF controlling various regions. In South Kordofan, clashes between the SAF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), a militant organization active in South Kordofan and Blue Nile siding with the RSF, caused the displacement of over 50,000 people. On 04/08/2023, the RSF claimed it obtained control of Central Darfur. Thousands of people were displaced between 11/08/2023 and 17/08/2023 due to renewed clashes between SAF and RSF in South Darfur capital Nyala Town. Meanwhile, the Governor of Darfur announced the deployment of the Joint Forces of the Armed Struggle Movement (ASM) to protect civilians in the area. In Geneina, West Darfur, the governor confirmed a ceasefire between the warring parties. Despite this, Khartoum remains the epicenter of violence. During the first week of September, several clashes between SAF and RSF and airstrikes have been reported. Also on 04/08/2023, the UN denounced that the ongoing violence in Darfur, perpetrated by the RSF, is increasingly based on ethnicity and sexual/gender-based violence and is drastically increasing as the conflict continues. On 29/08/2023, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the SAF, flew to Egypt to attend talks with Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to discuss efforts to end the conflict in Sudan. On 29/08/2023, the Ministry of Interior announced the resumption of passport issuance in the country, apart from North Darfur and North Kordofan. Citizens seem dissatisfied with the high cost of passports, it restricts people’s right to free movement. On 30/08/2023, the governor of the Blue Nile province proclaimed the state of emergency in place would be extended for another month. On 04/09/2023, the UNHCR, supported by 64 humanitarian and national civil society organizations, announced they need $1 billion to provide essential aid and protection to more than 1.8 million people fleeing the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Sudan’s airspace has been partially reopened. The first commercial flight between Cairo and Port Sudan took place on 05/09/2023. There are unconfirmed reports on Chad partially reopening the border with Sudan. Analysis The situation in Sudan is still volatile. Fighting between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is spreading around the country. The conflict heavily affects the population. Several humanitarian organizations have expressed their concern for the civilians. If the crisis and the displacement continue it is very likely to expect a high level of food and water insecurity. Humanitarian and medical assistance is limited due to frequent attacks against medical personnel. According to the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH), the conflict significantly facilitates the outbreak of diseases. The few hospitals still open in Khartoum are in danger of being closed after some Doctors Without Borders (DWB) employees were beaten and whipped by armed forces. Both SAF and RSF are gaining local support. Tensions are arising between groups in Darfur, with Arab militias supporting the RSF and allegedly targeting non-Arab groups and African tribes. There will likely be a rise in interethnic violence in Darfur. To date, over 3 million individuals have been internally displaced (mostly from 8 states). On the regional level, there is widespread concern about the continuation of the conflict in Sudan. The conflict is exacerbating regional insecurity and humanitarian crises. Specifically, the displacement crisis is concerning for neighboring countries, like Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Libya. The United States and Saudi Arabia sponsored negotiations in May 2023 but they collapsed quickly due to violations of the ceasefire and the SAF leaving negotiations in June 2023. The United States remains Sudan’s leading aid supplier, while implementing sanctions and visa restrictions on SAF and RSF members. The African Union is seeking to facilitate mediation between the parties and restart the democratization process in Sudan. However, the AU's willingness to interact with both sides is causing discontent on the part of the Sudanese authorities. Egypt is siding with SAF. Besides geopolitical and stability interests, Egypt is directly affected by the neighboring state's conflict because of the massive flow of refugees pouring into the country. Strong evidence suggests that Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has armed and financed the RSF and is likely to benefit from its mining profits. Conclusion The conflict between the SAF and RSF will continue in the near future. The involvement of various regional and international actors and their multiple interests make a short-term solution to the conflict unlikely. The protracted conflict will exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis. It is likely to lead to an escalation of the flow of displaced persons to neighboring countries and a consequent increase in migration flows to Europe. The conflict is also likely to result in a deepening of divisions between the different groups, characterized by ethnic cleansing practices and increased violence against civilians.

  • Charlotte Bakker joins Dyami Academy as a trainer actress and contributor

    Utrecht, 7 September 2023 – Dyami Academy proudly welcomes Charlotte Bakker, an accomplished training actress and contributor, to its team of experts dedicated to enhancing security and awareness across diverse industries. With a rich background in theater and a proven track record as a theater director, Charlotte's unique talents will play a vital role in advancing Dyami Academy's mission. Charlotte Bakker's journey in the world of performing arts began in the theater, where her passion for storytelling and captivating audiences took root. Her experiences as a theater director allowed her to refine her skills in creating compelling narratives and engaging performances. Now, as a member of Dyami Academy, Charlotte artfully blends her theatrical expertise with a strong commitment to improving security awareness in various sectors. In her role at Dyami Academy, Charlotte Bakker will focus on developing immersive and lifelike scenarios that serve as essential training tools for organizations looking to enhance security and awareness. Her creative approach to crafting realistic situations will empower businesses, NGOs, and the aviation sector to train their personnel effectively and prepare them for an array of security-related challenges. "We are thrilled to have Charlotte Bakker join Dyami Academy," said Sophie Buur, head of training at Dyami Academy. "Her unique background in theater and her dedication to enhancing security awareness align perfectly with our mission. Charlotte's contributions will undoubtedly help organizations prepare for and respond to security challenges more effectively." Charlotte Bakker's addition to Dyami Academy's team represents a significant step forward in the organization's commitment to providing innovative and immersive training solutions for a safer and more secure future. For more information about Dyami Academy please visit dyami.services or contact Victor Kummeling at info@dyami.services. About Dyami Academy Dyami Academy , part of Dyami Security Intelligence Services is a leading provider of security and awareness training solutions for organizations across various sectors. By offering immersive and realistic training scenarios, Dyami Academy equips personnel with the knowledge and skills needed to respond effectively to security-related challenges. Through a commitment to innovation and excellence, Dyami Academy strives to create a safer and more secure world for all.

  • Former Brigadier General Ajmal Shinwari joins Dyami as geopolitical intelligence expert

    Utrecht, 12 September 2023 - Dyami Security Intelligence is honored to announce the appointment of former Brigadier General Ajmal Shinwari as a Geopolitical Intelligence Expert. General Shinwari's extensive experience and dedication to global peace and stability make him a valuable addition to the Dyami team. General Shinwari has had a distinguished career in the intelligence service of Afghanistan, the National Directorate of Security (NDS). Rising through the ranks to the esteemed position of Brigadier General, he notably served as the Commander in Chief of the Special Forces of the NDS and as the spokesperson for the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). His military journey has equipped him with a deep understanding of warfare, security, and intelligence intricacies. Beyond his military service, General Shinwari has contributed to the field through research, professional articles, and his book titled "Important Notices for the Commander." To further enhance his expertise, General Shinwari has actively participated in courses and seminars in Washington DC, focusing on Operation Management and Leadership, Strategic Issues, Intelligence Reporting, and Operational Tradecraft. "We are thrilled to welcome General Shinwari to our team," said Eric Schouten, CEO of Dyami Security Intelligence. "His vast experience and commitment to global peace align perfectly with Dyami's mission to provide quality analysis on key global issues, making them accessible and affordable." About Dyami Dyami Security Intelligence specializes in geopolitical forecasting, emphasizing informed decision-making, risk mitigation, and long-term success. By harnessing accurate and up-to-date information, Dyami assists companies and organizations in navigating the complexities of geopolitics, effectively mitigating risks, and seizing opportunities in a constantly evolving world. Dyami offers tailored threat and geopolitical analyses, ensuring businesses remain updated with global intelligence. Their systematic security risk and intelligence management approach aids in anticipating and responding to potential threats, thereby supporting better preventive measures and cost reduction. Membership at Dyami gives you access to a range of products and services to build a secure, compliant, and resilient organization. Our bespoke services linked to your membership are available on demand through a single contract and subscription fee. For media inquiries, please contact: Eric Schouten eric@dyami.services www.dyami.services +31302072120

  • Intel Brief on Violence in Cyprus

    Date: 04/09/2023 Location: the island of Cyprus Parties involved: the United Nations, UNFICYP Peacekeepers, Turkish Cypriot authorities, the UN’s special representative in Cyprus, the government of the Republic of Cyprus. What happened? On 17/08/2023 Turkish Cypriot authorities unilaterally announced their decision to begin construction on a road linking the villages of Pyla/Pile and Arsos/Yigitler. The planned road would traverse the UN buffer-zone and grant Turkish Cypriots direct access to Pyla/Pile by circumventing a checkpoint at the Dhekelia British military base. The United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) immediately deemed the construction of such a road as “unauthorised” as it would alter the status-quo along the ceasefire lines and encroach into the buffer zone. Subsequently, UN Peacekeepers moved to block the road should construction begin. On 18/08/2023 violence erupted after UN Peacekeepers attempted to prevent the building of the illegal road. Around a dozen UN Peacekeepers clashed with a group of Turkish Cypriot military and police personnel in plain clothes. Three Peacekeepers were injured and taken to hospital. Several UN vehicles were also badly damaged after Turkish Cypriots rammed them off the road or attempted to pull them away. The clashes happened less than a mile from the perimeter of the Dhekelia military area, one of the two British sovereign bases on the island. On 21/08/2023 the Cyprus representatives of the United Kingdom, France, and the United States all released a statement as permanent members of the UN Security Council. The statement expresses concern at the launch of an unauthorised construction by the Turkish Cypriot side and condemns the assaults on UN personnel and property as a serious violation of international law. The de facto “government” of Northern Cyprus accused the UN of being biased against Turkish Cypriots and making unfounded claims that UN soldiers and property were attacked. According to the Turkish Cypriot side, the UN’s decision to physically intervene and obstruct the construction team operating within Turkish Cypriot territory was unacceptable. The UN is maintaining a constant presence in the Pyla area to monitor the situation and prevent the recurrence of arbitrary operations. Despite reports by Turkish news agencies that construction work has continued as normal, the UN reported that the works have been halted since the incident on 18/08/2023. On 01/09/2023 a solution was allegedly found to the controversy surrounding the Pyla-Arsos road. Mediation talks between the United Nations’ special representative in Cyprus, Colin Stewart, and the respective governments of the Republic of Cyprus and Northern Cyprus seem to have proved fruitful. The agreement proposes that the road will be built with the condition that the UNFICYP will have the sole responsibility for the buffer zone area. The agreement also includes a plan for the development of the Pyla village regarding housing as well as agriculture in the surrounding area as far north as Pergamos. However, the agreement has not yet been ratified. Further talks are needed regarding the special use management of the various zones within the Pyla area, taking into account local stakeholders. Cyprus has also been experiencing violence due to tensions resulting from increased migration flows to the island. On 27/08/2023 and 28/08/2023, the Greek Cypriot local community clashed with Syrian asylum seekers in the village of Chloraka, leading to 21 arrests being made by the police in the aftermath of the riots. The violence also spread to Limassol on 01/08/2023 when a far right protest against migrants and refugees resulted in racist assaults and vandalism. A further 13 arrests have been made since. Analysis: With an apparent solution having been found recently, it is unlikely that the clash between UN Peacekeepers and Turkish Cypriots will lead to an escalation in the conflict. However, the agreement has still not been officially ratified which is cause for concern as tensions remain high in the Pyla/Pile area. Turkish Cypriot authorities are likely to continue to press for the construction of the road since it would offer residents of Northern Cyprus greater freedom of movement into the Pyla/Pile area. The peaceful resolution of the dispute will heavily depend on the UN’s mediation efforts led by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Cyprus, Colin Stewart. On the other hand, the UN is straddling an increasingly difficult position due to accusations from the Turkish government and the de facto Turkish Cypriot government that it has lost its neutrality in the conflict. The violent incident involving UN Peacekeepers has brought the Cyprus conflict back into the attention of the international community at a challenging time for international security. The Security Council released a press statement on the matter on 21/08/2023 calling for the two sides to reach an agreement regarding the appointment of an UN envoy to support the return to urgent formal negotiations for a lasting settlement in Cyprus. Peace talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides have broken down since 2017 when a deal failed to materialise. The eruption of violence in the UN buffer zone is likely to serve as a reminder of the fragility of the peace that is keeping the Cyprus conflict in a frozen state. An escalation in the conflict would present severe consequences not only for the stability of the EU but also for the wider Eastern Mediterranean region due to Cyprus’ strategic position and the presence of 2 British military bases on the island. Unless formal peace talks resume in light of the seriousness of the situation, there is a considerable risk that Turkish-Greek Cypriot relations will continue to sour. Whilst there have been previous infringements of the UN buffer zone in Cyprus over the years, they have never resulted in a violent altercation with UN Peacekeepers. The resort to force by Turkish Cypriot military and police personnel indicates an increase in the continuous challenge coming from the Turkish Cypriot side to UNFICYP’s authority and legitimacy to maintaining the status quo on the island. The official challenge first came in July 2018 when the former Turkish-Cypriot leader, Mustafa Akinci, sent a letter to the UN Security Council asking for the reassessment of the mandate of UNFICYP. Indeed, the Turkish Cypriot side insists that UNFICYP is cooperating with Turkish Cypriot authorities without a legal basis since consent for the admission and operation of a UN force has only been granted by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. However, because the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is not recognised by the UN as a sovereign state, it cannot give such consent under international law. The Turkish side is likely pushing for a “solution based on two states cooperating with each other” rather than the unification of Cyprus under a bizonal, bicommunal federation model as stipulated in previous UN Resolutions. This is certain to be a contentious issue in any formal negotiation on the Cyprus conflict and is therefore likely to lead to further challenges to the mandate of UNFICYP by the Turkish side. There is a realistic probability that the migration crisis and violence experienced by the Republic of Cyprus has been aggravated by the actions of Turkey and the de facto Turkish Cypriot state. The government of the Republic of Cyprus claims that around 90% of migrants cross from mainland Turkey into the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north through a loosely regulated student visa system. Thousands then cross the UN buffer zone to seek asylum in the EU member Greek Cypriot south. Greek Cypriot national security officials have accused Turkey of waging a hybrid war against the Republic by using migration flows to escalate tensions and destabilise the country. Indeed, Turkey has previously been known to weaponize migration as a tool to accomplish broader political, economic, and foreign policy goals. The Turkish side may therefore be utilising migration as a tool to put pressure on the Greek Cypriot Republic and the international community to gain recognition for the sovereignty of the TRNC. Conclusion The violent clash between UN Peacekeepers and Turkish Cypriot military and police personnel over the construction of the Pyla/Pile-Arsos/Yigitler road has called attention to the possible volatility of the political situation in Cyprus. Moreover, the Turkish side is likely to continue to challenge the UN’s authority and legitimacy as the primary mediator on the Cyprus conflict and may therefore pursue further destabilising actions in order to extract political concessions. In light of the many geopolitical dynamics at play in Cyprus, the frozen conflict on the island as well as the status of UNFICYP must remain closely monitored.

  • Early Warning Brief: Armenia Azerbaijan

    Date: 08/09/2023 Where: Armenia and Azerbaijan Who’s involved: Armenian government, Azeri government, Russian government, Turkish government What happened? Azerbaijan has been mobilizing a significant military force since 06/09/2023 to the border with Armenia. Specifically, this appears to be the case near the southern end of the border with Armenia. This all comes after progression during peace talks between the countries have ground to a halt. Additionally, Azeri state media repeatedly has depicted Armenia as ‘wester-Azerbaijan’. Analysis: The chance of full-scale conflict between the two nations is likely, but not guaranteed. The goal of Azerbaijan for such a conflict is likely to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakchivan. This would provide Azerbaijan with a direct land connection to its closest ally, Turkey. This would mean that Azerbaijan’s goal for the potential conflict would be to annex the south of Armenia. There is a small chance that the current troop buildup is used as a political move, to try and influence certain decisions in the ‘peace’ talks between the two countries. If a full-scale conflict breaks out in the region, air travel will be severely affected, as it would be unsafe to travel anywhere near the territories of Armenia or Azerbaijan. This would close yet another option for commercial aviation between Europe and Asia.

  • Intel Brief on Poland’s military future

    Date: 05/09/2023 Where: Poland Who’s involved: Polish government, Russian government, Belarussian government, US government What happened? Since the invasion of Ukraine, Poland has majorly supported its neighbor but it has also started to invest massively in its own military. With this investment, Poland’s military size is set to almost double by the year 2035. However, with elections coming in October 2023, the military expansion has raised questions on possible alternative motivations of the ruling party, as well as doubts about whether Poland can even sustain such a military force. Russia and Belarus: Two main reasons for Poland’s military expansion are the combination of its geographical location and the invasion of Ukraine. Poland has received multiple threats from the Russian and Belarussian regimes, specifying Poland as their next war target after Ukraine. Poland is not willing to ‘wait and see’ what will happen in Ukraine, without preparing itself for an actual invasion. Political motivations: There is an internal political motivation to increase the military spending of Poland. The ruling party Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość(PiS)) has been losing support according to polls, and the upcoming elections will be on October 15, 2023. Investing in the military could turn around the prospected loss of the ruling party. Opposition parties are worried if Poland will be able to sustain the military expenditure that comes from having a large standing army in the future, without compromising for instance living standards. US political situation: Depending on the 2024 elections, there is a possibility that US support for Ukraine and European NATO members will dwindle. This will be true especially if the Republicans win. This will leave European countries alone in supporting Ukraine. With the recent improved bond between Poland and Ukraine, the new military budget could mean Poland will be ready to fill some of the gap that the US will potentially leave in the future. Analysis: Recent developments: Since 2015, the amount of active serving personnel in the Polish military has significantly grown from 100,000 to 175,000. Besides the growth in numbers, the Polish military has undergone and still is undergoing major modernization efforts to raise above its status as a NATO army with Soviet gear. To achieve this, Poland is scheduled to hit 4% GDP expenditure on its military from the end of this year already, this doubles the NATO 2% standard. Modernization: The Polish military has in recent years already started shedding its Soviet equipment, in favor of western designs. A major catalyst for Poland’s military modernization was the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In this time period, Poland donated much of its Soviet equipment to Ukraine, for which it was pledged modern western replacements by the US. Future plans: The Polish plans are to expand their military personnel count from the current 175,000 to around 300,000 active personnel in 2035. To accommodate this massive expansion, the Polish military is ordering and buying an equally massive amount of new hardware. This includes but is not limited to: 1500 Main Battle Tanks, of which 1000 of the South-Korean K2 variant; close to 1500 domestic produced Infantry Fighting Vehicles; around 800 artillery pieces, mostly from South-Korean produce, just like the 288 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems; as well as 96 Apache attack helicopters, 32 F-35A Multirole aircraft and 44 South-Korean FA-50 variants. Why South-Korea? Poland's choice of South Korean weapons is the combination of quality and capabilities of the products, which is comparable to Western counterparts, and short delivery dates. This made Poland prefer South-Korea as their main arms supplier over countries such as Germany and the US. Deterrence. As stated by president Duda, the aim for Poland is to “(...)create such a defense system that no-one ever dares attack us, that Polish soldiers will never need to fight." If Poland manages to establish the kind of military force, then expansionist neighbors will look elsewhere. Poland’s many experiences and historical grievances with being besieged, invaded and conquered fuel the need for a deterrence force even more. Can Poland maintain this expansion? As mentioned above, raising a large standing army does not only come with a large first time investment, it also ensures a high total maintenance cost - especially if Poland is planning to keep its new material ready for action. Even though the Polish economy has been steadily growing, whether Poland will be able to afford its military expansion will be dependent on its willingness to withdraw funds from other departments of the government. Poland could optionally decide to put some of their new hardware in long-term storage, preserving the machines but not having to pay the full running costs, while having them ready for use when needed. Conclusion The Polish military has and will see massive expansion in recent and coming years, and in a very short time has grown to the third highest military spender in NATO at 4% GDP. The Polish government’s security concerns are mainly motivated by their proximity to Belarus, and Russia, which the government considers to be hostile. Another motivation for Poland to expand its military capability is the future of domestic US politics. The US military support Europe currently enjoys is likely to reduce in the future; the extent of this will depend on the result of the 2024 US elections. Worries exist in Poland that these (promised) investments are made by the ruling party to score politically, due to them having lost influence in recent times. With the developments Poland has made and is planning to make, it will very quickly establish itself as one of, if not the main European fighting force for at least in the near future. However, it runs the risk of compromising its economy in doing so.

  • Early Warning Brief: Tunisia

    Date: 05/09/2023 Location: Tunisia Parties involved: Tunisian government and security forces, Muslim Brotherhood, European tourists. What happened? On 17/07/2023 the EU, under leadership of The Netherlands and Italy, signed a 100million euro deal with Tunisia to stop the flow of migrants to the EU. This deal attracted a lot of criticism from human rights groups saying that Tunisia is not known for abiding international laws and is known for its maltreatment of migrants. On 01/09/2023 the African Court on Human and People’s Rights ordered the Tunisian government to “eliminate all barriers” and allow detained political prisoners access to their legal representatives and doctors. On 03/09/2023, the Tunisian authorities arrested a senior opposition leader from the Ennahda Islamist Party. He headed the largest political party in Tunisia before the parliament was shut down by the ruling president Kais Saied in 2021. His arrest follows multiple targeting of opposition figures by the current authorities. On 04/09/2023, the Central Bank of Tunisia extended Tunisia’s currency bills to pay for imports of rice. Tunisia’s economy is in crisis. While the economy did not substantially improve after the Arab Spring in 2011, the spike in food prices following Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised prices for everyday goods. With rising debt levels to pay for everyday imports, the country’s debt levels are high, with no deal reached between the IMF and the government to extend financial assistance to the country. Analysis and implications: The political situation in the country is not stable with President Saied taking a more authoritarian stance since he dissolved the Tunisian parliament in July 2021. One of the recent measures by the President was to crack down on a political party associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical religious and political organization. Human Rights Watch has called attention to the Tunisian government’s moves to systematically silence and dismantle the country’s largest opposition party. This may lead to unrest in the country as seen before during the Arab Spring in 2011 or even terrorist attacks from radicalized groups who feel silenced in parliament. Any unrest will also lead to a decline in tourists coming to Tunisia, which in turn will have a significant impact on the economy. There is a large influx of refugees coming from East and Central Africa to Tunisia. This has led to tensions between the Tunisian people and the refugees, who are mostly black Africans. President Saied has drawn international criticism for blaming Sub-Saharan refugees for the rise of crime in the country, which resulted in a significant rise in racist attacks towards them. This has also led to refugees searching for alternative countries or forming groups to defend themselves. When leaving Tunisia, however, refugees face a similar fate in neighboring countries. Libya, Algeria and Morocco are also known to crack down on refugees coming into the country. Tunisia is a popular tourist destination because of its beautiful beaches and low costs. Therefore, Tunisia is heavily reliant on the tourism industry. An uptick in violence towards foreigners has previously led to a crash in this industry, especially after a terrorist attack in the capital Tunis in 2015 and before that, the troubles coming from the Arab Spring in 2011. A terrorist attack like the one on 09/05/2023 might encourage other lone wolves or more organized terrorist groups to engage in attacks. Given the ongoing political instability, it is not unlikely that European tourists may be targeted in these attacks, considering Tunisia is an attractive holiday destination. Security in the country may decline due to unfavorable economic conditions. Negotiations between the IMF and the Tunisia government have stalled in recent months as President Saied rejected the terms of a $1.9 billion loan for extended financial assistance. He refused the terms of the IMF package to reduce subsidies for food prices and the sale of state-owned enterprises. Whatever the effectiveness of these policies, a deterioration in the quality of life of the Tunisian population may increase the likelihood of people joining criminal organizations or becoming radicalized. The influx and subsequent poor treatment of black refugees can also lead to more unrest in the country as refugees may organize self-defence groups against racist attacks. This might also lead to more people daring to cross the Mediterranean to go to Europe and a decline in tourists going to Tunisia. Concluding notes: The situation in Tunisia is one of declining stability. With president Saied taking a tougher stance on the political groups aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Political tensions may turn into large protests or even terrorist attacks. It is advisable to keep an eye on current events and be weary of the changing political landscape in the country. It is also encouraged to think of the security situation for tourists if there is a rise in terrorist attacks in places like Djerba, Tunis or other popular destinations in Tunisia.

  • Jan-Peter van Viegen Assumes Role as Head of Aviation at Dyami

    Utrecht, September 2023 – Dyami, a leading provider of aviation security solutions, is proud to announce the appointment of Jan-Peter van Viegen as Head of Aviation. With an illustrious career spanning two decades in various facets of aviation, Jan-Peter brings a wealth of experience and expertise to the Dyami team. Jan-Peter's extensive background encompasses flight operations, business aviation, flight training, safety, and compliance. He has held various key positions in the aviation sector, starting as an operations officer and working his way up to roles such as assistant flight operations manager and security & compliance officer. Most recently, he served as a senior inspector at CAA-NL (Civil Aviation Authority Netherlands). Moreover, Jan-Peter boasts significant experience as a commercial pilot and flight instructor, specializing in aircraft like the Challenger 350/604 and Embraer Phenom 100/300. He has also contributed as a training developer and instructor trainer. With this diverse range of skills and a comprehensive understanding of aviation, Jan-Peter has a unique perspective on the aviation industry's multifaceted challenges and the ability to translate these into practical solutions. Jan-Peter van Viegen's role at Dyami will involve close collaboration with the aviation community, where he will represent Dyami's cutting-edge aviation security solutions. Dyami offers a One-Stop Aviation Security Solution aimed at assisting aviation security officers and dispatchers in enhancing their capabilities, optimizing operations, and reinforcing security measures. The Dyami solution is designed to provide an affordable and holistic approach to security risk management, ultimately resulting in more secure and efficient airline and charter operations. In an environment marked by evolving security threats and complex regulatory requirements, this solution is essential in ensuring the safety and security of passengers, crew, and assets. Dyami membership offers access to a range of products and services tailored to build secure, compliant, and resilient aviation organizations. These bespoke services, linked to membership, are available on-demand through a single contract and subscription fee. Jan-Peter van Viegen's appointment underscores Dyami's commitment to delivering cutting-edge aviation security solutions and further solidifies its position as a trusted partner in the aviation industry. For more information about Dyami and its aviation security solutions, please visit [www.dyami.com] Contact: Eric Schouten eric@dyami.services] About Dyami Dyami is a leading provider of aviation security solutions. With a commitment to enhancing aviation safety and security, Dyami offers a comprehensive One-Stop Aviation Security Solution that empowers aviation security officers and dispatchers to navigate the complex landscape of aviation security with confidence. Dyami's mission is to provide affordable and holistic security risk management solutions that enhance the security and efficiency of airline and charter operations. Dyami membership includes access to a range of tailored products and services designed to build secure, compliant, and resilient aviation organizations.

  • The Importance of training staff on travel safety and security

    Understanding the vital role of safety preparedness in international business travel In today's globalized economy, international travel has become a norm for many companies. While it offers ample opportunities for business growth and expansion, it also poses risks that cannot be overlooked. Training staff on travel safety and security is not just a company's duty of care; it's also common sense. Every year, countless professionals embark on international business trips. While most of these are uneventful, there have been unfortunate instances where business travelers found themselves in compromising situations. Training ensures that your staff can not only identify potential threats but also respond efficiently, minimizing risks and ensuring their well-being. Consider the following recent incidents that highlight the importance of safety training: Political Unrest in Hong Kong A British marketing consultant found herself caught in the middle of a political protest in Hong Kong while visiting a client. Unaware of the local political climate and lacking proper situational awareness, she was detained briefly by the authorities. This incident highlighted the need for pre-travel briefings and situational awareness training. Civil Unrest in Chile (2021) Amidst the political protests and civil disturbances in Santiago, Chile, several business travelers were stranded without proper accommodations or safe transit routes. Those familiar with emergency evacuation protocols and who had access to local emergency contact numbers managed the situation far better than their unprepared counterparts. Arrested for Cultural Misunderstanding: In 2021, a business traveler from Europe, while visiting a Middle Eastern country, inadvertently engaged in a public behavior deemed inappropriate by local customs. This resulted in a brief arrest, causing not only personal distress but also significant disruption to the business objectives of the trip. Such incidents drive home a singular point: preparedness is key. By ensuring that employees are trained in safety and security protocols, companies can significantly mitigate the risks associated with international travel. This not only protects the well-being of the employees but also safeguards the company's reputation and operations. In a world filled with uncertainties, equipping your workforce with the knowledge and tools to navigate challenging situations is both a duty and a sensible business decision. The Case for Training: Duty of Care and Beyond Under the legal concept of "duty of care," employers are required to take all reasonable steps to ensure their employees' well-being, health, and safety. This obligation extends to employees traveling abroad for work. However, beyond meeting legal requirements, comprehensive travel safety and security training is an exercise in common sense. Such training equips staff with the tools to handle a wide array of situations, from minor inconveniences to life-threatening emergencies. It's not just about avoiding liability; it's about creating a culture of safety and preparedness that benefits both the company and its employees.

  • The Rising need for Risk Assessments for Aircraft Operators in Today's Geopolitical Landscape

    By Eric Schouten, CEO and founder of Dyami security intelligence services 3 September 2023 In the ever-evolving world of aviation, the safety and security of passengers, crew, and aircraft assets remain paramount. In recent years, with an uptick in global political unrest, emerging conflict zones, and unpredictable geopolitical events, the significance of comprehensive risk assessments for aircraft overflight and destinations has grown manifold. The tragic incidents of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, downed by an Iranian missile in 2020, followed by the unfortunate loss of several aircraft in Sudan in 2023, underscore the profound and immediate necessity for rigorous risk assessments in the aviation sector. These disasters serve as grim reminders that the geopolitical landscape is fraught with unexpected dangers, many of which can have dire implications for civilian air travel. An aircraft, when viewed as an asset, holds significant financial value, but the invaluable lives it carries elevates the stakes immeasurably higher. Risk assessments, when done meticulously, offer a proactive approach to identifying and navigating potential conflict zones, political tensions, and other volatile situations. Beyond mere compliance or operational efficiency, these evaluations are paramount for the safety of passengers and crew, and for upholding the trust millions place in the aviation industry every day. For aircraft operators, charters, and airlines, the stakes are high, making it essential to invest in proper risk assessments. Here's why: 1. Navigating the Geopolitical Maze: The last decade has seen a surge in political upheavals, territorial disputes, and armed conflicts. These often create no-fly zones or areas of restricted movement. By routinely conducting risk assessments, operators can stay abreast of rapidly changing geopolitical conditions and adjust routes promptly, ensuring safety and compliance with international aviation norms. 2. Protecting Assets and Reputation: An aircraft inadvertently flying into an active conflict zone or area of political unrest risks asset damage, ranging from minor to catastrophic. Moreover, any incident, however small, can severely damage an airline's reputation, potentially leading to a loss in customer trust and future business. 3. Financial Considerations: Diverting flights due to unforeseen risks can be a costly affair. By proactively identifying and mitigating risks, operators can avoid unplanned rerouting expenses. Moreover, airlines may also face higher insurance premiums if they are perceived as high-risk by underwriters due to inadequate risk management practices. 4. Ensuring Passenger and Crew Confidence: Safety is a primary concern for passengers and crew. Demonstrating a robust commitment to risk assessment and safety procedures reassures passengers and crew of their safety, fostering loyalty and trust in the airline's operations. 5. Legal and Regulatory Implications: The aviation industry is stringently regulated. Failure to adhere to safety norms and regulations, especially in international airspace, can lead to hefty fines and legal consequences. Regular risk assessments ensure that operators are always compliant, avoiding potential legal pitfalls. 6. Staying Ahead with Proactive Planning: In the volatile world of geopolitics, situations can change overnight. Operators armed with comprehensive, up-to-date risk assessments are better prepared to make quick decisions, adapt to new information, and minimize disruptions. In conclusion, the need for thorough risk assessments in aviation is more pressing than ever. The dynamic geopolitical landscape demands a proactive, well-informed approach. For aircraft operators, charters, and airlines, this is not just about compliance—it's about safeguarding passengers, protecting assets, and securing a place of trust and reliability in a complex, interconnected world. Investing in proper risk assessments today is an investment in a safer, more assured tomorrow. Peace of mind Dyami offers a comprehensive One-Stop Aviation Security Solution to assist aviation security officers and dispatchers in enhancing their capabilities and capacity, streamlining operations, and bolstering security measures. ​ Our solution aims to provide an affordable holistic approach to security risk management that results in more secure and efficient airline or charter operations. Visit dyami aviation for more information. About the author Eric Schouten worked as an aviation intelligence officer at the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service - AIVD. After a career of 13 years, he left with the aim of offering unique bespoke security & intelligence services to the aviation sector. Eric believes in collaboration and bringing expertise together. After his experiences with the attacks in New York during 9/11, espionage cases, and various terrorist plots and attacks, including the disaster with flight MH17, he established Dyami to ensure that security & intelligence services are made available in an accessible and cost-effective manner.

  • Intel Brief an update on Hezbollah's Rising Influence in the Middle East

    Date: 17/08/2023 Parties involved: Hezbollah, Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps), Syria’s president al-Assad, the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), Lebanese government. Recap: The terrorist organization Hezbollah has been provoking Israel by crossing the border between Lebanon and Israel and setting up tents in Israeli-held territory. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah called on his followers to prepare for war with Israel. Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon has been waning and therefore it seeks to deflect from its internal problems by picking a fight with Israel. Iran has upped its deliveries of money and weapons to Hezbollah increasing its capabilities to strike deep in the heart of Israel. Israel has not taken physical action against Hezbollah or Lebanon. What has happened since 14/07/2023? On 07/08/2023 the IDF arrested several Palestinian terrorists connected to a training facility in Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant spoke to the press on 07/08/2023 and threatened to “return Lebanon to the stone age” if Hezbollah attacked Israel. This marked a change in tactics for Israel by putting Lebanon on equal footing with Hezbollah. On 09/08/2023 a Hezbollah truck filled either with weapons, drugs or other illicit material turned over in an accident south of Beirut in a Christian neighborhood. When locals decided to mob the truck(driver), Hezbollah militants opened fire on the crowd killing at least two people. On 10/08/2023 an unknown gunman opened fire on the car carrying the Lebanese defense minister south of Beirut. No one was hurt in the attack. On 11/08/2023 Hezbollah decided to take one of the two tents down that had been set up in the north of Israel. Hezbollah gave a new warning that Israel risks open warfare if it destroys the remaining tent. A Hezbollah operative threw a molotov-cocktail at Israeli assets on the border in the north of Israel on 13/08/2023. The IDF did not open fire on the operative but know who the man is. Conclusion: The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have not gone down the last month. In a new change of events Israel has now put Lebanon and Hezbollah on equal footing and has threatened to attack Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks Israel. This could lead to a much larger confrontation than if Israel would only focus on Hezbollah as an enemy. This move makes the Lebanese government responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, but without a proper government it is not likely that Hezbollah can be fully curtailed. Iran, through the actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Brigade, has and will deliver more weapons and training to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. This will make a confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah significantly more large scale than previous confrontations. With the Lebanese economic and political system in turmoil it is hard to guess where the Lebanese army will stand if a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel erupts. But if Israel decides that the entire infrastructure of Lebanon is a legitimate target, the Lebanese army will be forced to join in battle. The coming weeks will see a rise in tension in the region, especially with Iran and the US bolstering up troops in the region and with Israel and Iran getting into more aggressive verbal confrontations about Iran’s nuclear programme.

  • Intel Brief on Northern Ireland

    Date: 21/08/2023 Location: Northern Ireland, United Kingdom Parties involved: Northern Irish Paramilitary Groups (IRA, UDA, UVF), the Northern Ireland Assembly (Stormont), the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), the UK Government. The Events: The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) is experiencing a deepening data security crisis over the mishandling of personal information that could be used to target employees. On 08/08/2023 a spreadsheet was mistakenly published online containing the surnames, initials, ranks or grades, location, and departments of all current PSNI officers and civilian staff members. The data breach happened after the information was included in error in response to a Freedom of Information Request. It is understood to be the worst data breach in the organization’s history since its creation following the Good Friday Agreement. The data in the spreadsheet included information about officers based in the PSNI’s organized crime unit, officers based at ports and airports, and staff based at MI5 offices in Holywood, County Down. This is the second data breach in weeks after a police-issued laptop, radio and documents were stolen from a car in Northern Ireland on 06/07/2023. A third data breach occurred on 14/08/2023 after a document was posted online with details of 11 PSNI officers. The information remained online for 2 days before being taken down. The PSNI data is in the hands of dissident Republicans. On 14/08/2023 the PSNI leaked document was posted on a wall opposite a Sinn Fein office on Falls Road, West Belfast along with a threatening message. On 17/08/2023 a man was arrested in County Armagh on suspicion of collection of information likely to be useful to terrorists. The man was subsequently released on bail. On 19/08/2023 a second man was arrested and charged in County Derry/Londonderry under the Terrorism Act for being in possession of articles for use in terrorism. The investigation of criminality linked to last week’s PSNI data breach continues. Several PSNI members have applied for personal protection weapons due to the increased risk to their lives and property as a result of the data breaches. The Northern Irish Secretary announced that the UK government will be providing specialist support to the PSNI in order to mitigate the repercussions of the data breach crisis. Northern Ireland’s terrorism threat level is listed as severe by the MI5, meaning that a terrorist attack is highly likely. Political violence has been on the rise in Northern Ireland over the past year as the PSNI has come under attack from dissident Republicans. The Arm na Poblachta (Army of the Republic) said police officers' families would also be considered targets. On 22/02/2023, a senior police officer was shot whilst off-duty by masked gunmen of the New IRA in Omagh, County Tyrone. Loyalist paramilitaries also continue to be active in Northern Ireland. Paramilitary umbrella group, the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC), reported that Loyalist paramilitaries have withdrawn their support for the Good Friday Agreement. Violence related to drug feuds as well as other types of organized crime perpetrated by factions of the UVF and UDA (Loyalist) groups are almost a daily occurrence in Northern Ireland. Context: The Troubles were an ethno-nationalist conflict in Northern Ireland between Irish Republicans and British Unionists lasting for around 30 years since the late 1960s until 1998. The conflict ended with the signing of the (Belfast) Good Friday Agreement in 1998 stipulating the creation of a devolved Northern Irish government and the removal of British security installations which include those on the border. Renewed tensions in Northern Ireland can be linked to Brexit. The Northern Ireland Protocol with the EU came into force on 01/01/2021, where checks on goods and people traveling from Great Britain take place at Northern Ireland’s ports instead of at the Irish border. The Democratic Unionist Party argued that this places a de facto border in the Irish Sea, separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal was passed in the UK Parliament on 23/03/2023. This deal consists of 2 parts: the Westminster Framework and the Stormont Brake. The Westminster Framework intends to split goods traveling from the UK into two different lanes where only goods destined for Ireland and the rest of the EU would have to be checked. Moreover, the Stormont Brake would give the Northern Ireland Assembly powers to object to new EU rules. However, the European Court of Justice would still have a final say on whether Northern Ireland must follow certain EU single market rules. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has voted against the deal with Unionists arguing that Northern Ireland would remain imprisoned by the EU legal order, placing a barrier between them and the rest of the UK as Northern Ireland would not be able to properly diverge and take advantage of Brexit. The Northern Ireland Assembly has been suspended since February 2022, meaning that Northern Ireland continues to be without a functioning government. The power-sharing agreement which allows a government to be established has not been reached as the DUP, Northern Ireland’s largest Unionist party, has been boycotting Stormont over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Analysis and Implications: Considering that most recent attacks perpetrated by the New IRA have been targeted against members of the PSNI, the current data breaches are cause for serious concern. The fact that the IRA is now in the possession of very sensitive information has put staff members of the PSNI and their families in a very vulnerable position with many fearing for their safety. A number of PSNI officers and civilian workers have had to resign or relocate immediately, with some choosing to leave Northern Ireland altogether as a result of the heightened security risk. The PSNI is very likely to struggle with staff retention and recruitment, particularly among the Catholic community, at a time when numbers are already stretched. Therefore, the repercussions of the PSNI data security crisis are likely to be severe as the organization is in disarray and grappling with past wounds of the Troubles. The data breaches are likely to undermine the PSNI’s ability to combat terrorism and dissidence from paramilitary groups opposed to the peace process. The intelligence operations of the PSNI have especially been compromised with the identity of undercover operatives infiltrating extremist organizations being revealed. A robust intelligence apparatus is vital in order to identify and assess potential terrorist operations and targets, thus the disruption to the PSNI’s intelligence system is probable to cause a window of opportunity for political dissidents and criminal gangs. The current PSNI intelligence operatives, particularly those responding to the MI5, are expected to be replaced, which will pose more difficulties as new staff will need training and adjustment to the local security landscape. Moreover, the grave effect the data breaches have had on individual police morale may further disrupt policing efforts. As previously concluded by Dyami, terrorist attacks are likely to be small-scale and targeted at members of the PSNI. The data breaches, however, have increased the likelihood that such attacks will occur as it has armed the New IRA with priceless intelligence on desired targets. With the PSNI currently operating at a disadvantage, such attacks may also be harder to pre-empt. Consequently, there is a greater risk to the general public as any attack may produce collateral damage. Whilst there have been no reports of significant incidents thus far, dissidents may be trying to organize on how to best leverage their advantage considering their limited capability. Northern Ireland’s paramilitary organizations have little support among its various communities and no backing among any major political parties. Therefore, paramilitary groups will probably use the data breaches to spread fear and intimidate communities in hope to stoke up tensions. On the other hand, the PSNI has chosen to meet the present data security crisis with strength and resilience. Its prompt investigation into the criminality surrounding the data breaches and subsequent arrests show an organization that is up and running despite the ensuing struggles. The PSNI will be receiving specialist support and expertise from the UK government which should aid in the mitigation of the security risks the Northern Irish police force is facing today. It is vital that the general public is reassured that the PSNI will not allow itself to be intimidated or prevented from performing vital work by paramilitary groups. Undoubtedly, the current situation in Northern Ireland has called attention to the importance of data security for government institutions which could be misused by criminal organizations. The mitigation of the crisis will depend on devising new and secure databases where personnel data is spread across multiple access tiers. Furthermore, the PSNI data security crisis may have consequences for the UK’s Brexit process. The security threats presented by the data breaches call for the immediate reactivation of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions in order to mitigate the impacts of the crisis and allocate resources and budgets for law enforcement. But the DUP, who originally collapsed the Northern Ireland Assembly in February 2022, may use the data security crisis to extract concessions from the UK government on the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol. Northern Ireland’s tentative and incomplete post-Troubles cohesion presents a fragile peace that could have sectarian politics spill onto the streets if the delicate balance is disturbed. Westminster will be dealing with a complex challenge in pushing for the restoration of power-sharing, but so far it has neglected the developing crisis. The stability of Northern Ireland has security ramifications for the whole of the UK, and any push in any direction or the other could foment violence or support for paramilitaries. The PSNI data breach will have serious repercussions extending far into the future. This particularly involves the personal security of PSNI staff members who will have to take exceptional measures to protect themselves and their families. The data security crisis in Northern Ireland has provided terrorists with a window of opportunity to conduct small-scale targeted attacks against members of the PSNI. Presently, there is still a committed minority of political extremists in Northern Ireland who are prepared to use any opportunity to meet their political agenda through fear and intimidation. Lastly, the data security crisis may also be exploited by the DUP to reshape the Brexit balance due to the urgent need for Westminster to restore the Northern Ireland Assembly to working order.

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