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- Early Warning Brief: Tunisia
Date: 05/09/2023 Location: Tunisia Parties involved: Tunisian government and security forces, Muslim Brotherhood, European tourists. What happened? On 17/07/2023 the EU, under leadership of The Netherlands and Italy, signed a 100million euro deal with Tunisia to stop the flow of migrants to the EU. This deal attracted a lot of criticism from human rights groups saying that Tunisia is not known for abiding international laws and is known for its maltreatment of migrants. On 01/09/2023 the African Court on Human and People’s Rights ordered the Tunisian government to “eliminate all barriers” and allow detained political prisoners access to their legal representatives and doctors. On 03/09/2023, the Tunisian authorities arrested a senior opposition leader from the Ennahda Islamist Party. He headed the largest political party in Tunisia before the parliament was shut down by the ruling president Kais Saied in 2021. His arrest follows multiple targeting of opposition figures by the current authorities. On 04/09/2023, the Central Bank of Tunisia extended Tunisia’s currency bills to pay for imports of rice. Tunisia’s economy is in crisis. While the economy did not substantially improve after the Arab Spring in 2011, the spike in food prices following Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised prices for everyday goods. With rising debt levels to pay for everyday imports, the country’s debt levels are high, with no deal reached between the IMF and the government to extend financial assistance to the country. Analysis and implications: The political situation in the country is not stable with President Saied taking a more authoritarian stance since he dissolved the Tunisian parliament in July 2021. One of the recent measures by the President was to crack down on a political party associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical religious and political organization. Human Rights Watch has called attention to the Tunisian government’s moves to systematically silence and dismantle the country’s largest opposition party. This may lead to unrest in the country as seen before during the Arab Spring in 2011 or even terrorist attacks from radicalized groups who feel silenced in parliament. Any unrest will also lead to a decline in tourists coming to Tunisia, which in turn will have a significant impact on the economy. There is a large influx of refugees coming from East and Central Africa to Tunisia. This has led to tensions between the Tunisian people and the refugees, who are mostly black Africans. President Saied has drawn international criticism for blaming Sub-Saharan refugees for the rise of crime in the country, which resulted in a significant rise in racist attacks towards them. This has also led to refugees searching for alternative countries or forming groups to defend themselves. When leaving Tunisia, however, refugees face a similar fate in neighboring countries. Libya, Algeria and Morocco are also known to crack down on refugees coming into the country. Tunisia is a popular tourist destination because of its beautiful beaches and low costs. Therefore, Tunisia is heavily reliant on the tourism industry. An uptick in violence towards foreigners has previously led to a crash in this industry, especially after a terrorist attack in the capital Tunis in 2015 and before that, the troubles coming from the Arab Spring in 2011. A terrorist attack like the one on 09/05/2023 might encourage other lone wolves or more organized terrorist groups to engage in attacks. Given the ongoing political instability, it is not unlikely that European tourists may be targeted in these attacks, considering Tunisia is an attractive holiday destination. Security in the country may decline due to unfavorable economic conditions. Negotiations between the IMF and the Tunisia government have stalled in recent months as President Saied rejected the terms of a $1.9 billion loan for extended financial assistance. He refused the terms of the IMF package to reduce subsidies for food prices and the sale of state-owned enterprises. Whatever the effectiveness of these policies, a deterioration in the quality of life of the Tunisian population may increase the likelihood of people joining criminal organizations or becoming radicalized. The influx and subsequent poor treatment of black refugees can also lead to more unrest in the country as refugees may organize self-defence groups against racist attacks. This might also lead to more people daring to cross the Mediterranean to go to Europe and a decline in tourists going to Tunisia. Concluding notes: The situation in Tunisia is one of declining stability. With president Saied taking a tougher stance on the political groups aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Political tensions may turn into large protests or even terrorist attacks. It is advisable to keep an eye on current events and be weary of the changing political landscape in the country. It is also encouraged to think of the security situation for tourists if there is a rise in terrorist attacks in places like Djerba, Tunis or other popular destinations in Tunisia.
- Jan-Peter van Viegen Assumes Role as Head of Aviation at Dyami
Utrecht, September 2023 – Dyami, a leading provider of aviation security solutions, is proud to announce the appointment of Jan-Peter van Viegen as Head of Aviation. With an illustrious career spanning two decades in various facets of aviation, Jan-Peter brings a wealth of experience and expertise to the Dyami team. Jan-Peter's extensive background encompasses flight operations, business aviation, flight training, safety, and compliance. He has held various key positions in the aviation sector, starting as an operations officer and working his way up to roles such as assistant flight operations manager and security & compliance officer. Most recently, he served as a senior inspector at CAA-NL (Civil Aviation Authority Netherlands). Moreover, Jan-Peter boasts significant experience as a commercial pilot and flight instructor, specializing in aircraft like the Challenger 350/604 and Embraer Phenom 100/300. He has also contributed as a training developer and instructor trainer. With this diverse range of skills and a comprehensive understanding of aviation, Jan-Peter has a unique perspective on the aviation industry's multifaceted challenges and the ability to translate these into practical solutions. Jan-Peter van Viegen's role at Dyami will involve close collaboration with the aviation community, where he will represent Dyami's cutting-edge aviation security solutions. Dyami offers a One-Stop Aviation Security Solution aimed at assisting aviation security officers and dispatchers in enhancing their capabilities, optimizing operations, and reinforcing security measures. The Dyami solution is designed to provide an affordable and holistic approach to security risk management, ultimately resulting in more secure and efficient airline and charter operations. In an environment marked by evolving security threats and complex regulatory requirements, this solution is essential in ensuring the safety and security of passengers, crew, and assets. Dyami membership offers access to a range of products and services tailored to build secure, compliant, and resilient aviation organizations. These bespoke services, linked to membership, are available on-demand through a single contract and subscription fee. Jan-Peter van Viegen's appointment underscores Dyami's commitment to delivering cutting-edge aviation security solutions and further solidifies its position as a trusted partner in the aviation industry. For more information about Dyami and its aviation security solutions, please visit [www.dyami.com] Contact: Eric Schouten eric@dyami.services] About Dyami Dyami is a leading provider of aviation security solutions. With a commitment to enhancing aviation safety and security, Dyami offers a comprehensive One-Stop Aviation Security Solution that empowers aviation security officers and dispatchers to navigate the complex landscape of aviation security with confidence. Dyami's mission is to provide affordable and holistic security risk management solutions that enhance the security and efficiency of airline and charter operations. Dyami membership includes access to a range of tailored products and services designed to build secure, compliant, and resilient aviation organizations.
- The Importance of training staff on travel safety and security
Understanding the vital role of safety preparedness in international business travel In today's globalized economy, international travel has become a norm for many companies. While it offers ample opportunities for business growth and expansion, it also poses risks that cannot be overlooked. Training staff on travel safety and security is not just a company's duty of care; it's also common sense. Every year, countless professionals embark on international business trips. While most of these are uneventful, there have been unfortunate instances where business travelers found themselves in compromising situations. Training ensures that your staff can not only identify potential threats but also respond efficiently, minimizing risks and ensuring their well-being. Consider the following recent incidents that highlight the importance of safety training: Political Unrest in Hong Kong A British marketing consultant found herself caught in the middle of a political protest in Hong Kong while visiting a client. Unaware of the local political climate and lacking proper situational awareness, she was detained briefly by the authorities. This incident highlighted the need for pre-travel briefings and situational awareness training. Civil Unrest in Chile (2021) Amidst the political protests and civil disturbances in Santiago, Chile, several business travelers were stranded without proper accommodations or safe transit routes. Those familiar with emergency evacuation protocols and who had access to local emergency contact numbers managed the situation far better than their unprepared counterparts. Arrested for Cultural Misunderstanding: In 2021, a business traveler from Europe, while visiting a Middle Eastern country, inadvertently engaged in a public behavior deemed inappropriate by local customs. This resulted in a brief arrest, causing not only personal distress but also significant disruption to the business objectives of the trip. Such incidents drive home a singular point: preparedness is key. By ensuring that employees are trained in safety and security protocols, companies can significantly mitigate the risks associated with international travel. This not only protects the well-being of the employees but also safeguards the company's reputation and operations. In a world filled with uncertainties, equipping your workforce with the knowledge and tools to navigate challenging situations is both a duty and a sensible business decision. The Case for Training: Duty of Care and Beyond Under the legal concept of "duty of care," employers are required to take all reasonable steps to ensure their employees' well-being, health, and safety. This obligation extends to employees traveling abroad for work. However, beyond meeting legal requirements, comprehensive travel safety and security training is an exercise in common sense. Such training equips staff with the tools to handle a wide array of situations, from minor inconveniences to life-threatening emergencies. It's not just about avoiding liability; it's about creating a culture of safety and preparedness that benefits both the company and its employees.
- The Rising need for Risk Assessments for Aircraft Operators in Today's Geopolitical Landscape
By Eric Schouten, CEO and founder of Dyami security intelligence services 3 September 2023 In the ever-evolving world of aviation, the safety and security of passengers, crew, and aircraft assets remain paramount. In recent years, with an uptick in global political unrest, emerging conflict zones, and unpredictable geopolitical events, the significance of comprehensive risk assessments for aircraft overflight and destinations has grown manifold. The tragic incidents of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, downed by an Iranian missile in 2020, followed by the unfortunate loss of several aircraft in Sudan in 2023, underscore the profound and immediate necessity for rigorous risk assessments in the aviation sector. These disasters serve as grim reminders that the geopolitical landscape is fraught with unexpected dangers, many of which can have dire implications for civilian air travel. An aircraft, when viewed as an asset, holds significant financial value, but the invaluable lives it carries elevates the stakes immeasurably higher. Risk assessments, when done meticulously, offer a proactive approach to identifying and navigating potential conflict zones, political tensions, and other volatile situations. Beyond mere compliance or operational efficiency, these evaluations are paramount for the safety of passengers and crew, and for upholding the trust millions place in the aviation industry every day. For aircraft operators, charters, and airlines, the stakes are high, making it essential to invest in proper risk assessments. Here's why: 1. Navigating the Geopolitical Maze: The last decade has seen a surge in political upheavals, territorial disputes, and armed conflicts. These often create no-fly zones or areas of restricted movement. By routinely conducting risk assessments, operators can stay abreast of rapidly changing geopolitical conditions and adjust routes promptly, ensuring safety and compliance with international aviation norms. 2. Protecting Assets and Reputation: An aircraft inadvertently flying into an active conflict zone or area of political unrest risks asset damage, ranging from minor to catastrophic. Moreover, any incident, however small, can severely damage an airline's reputation, potentially leading to a loss in customer trust and future business. 3. Financial Considerations: Diverting flights due to unforeseen risks can be a costly affair. By proactively identifying and mitigating risks, operators can avoid unplanned rerouting expenses. Moreover, airlines may also face higher insurance premiums if they are perceived as high-risk by underwriters due to inadequate risk management practices. 4. Ensuring Passenger and Crew Confidence: Safety is a primary concern for passengers and crew. Demonstrating a robust commitment to risk assessment and safety procedures reassures passengers and crew of their safety, fostering loyalty and trust in the airline's operations. 5. Legal and Regulatory Implications: The aviation industry is stringently regulated. Failure to adhere to safety norms and regulations, especially in international airspace, can lead to hefty fines and legal consequences. Regular risk assessments ensure that operators are always compliant, avoiding potential legal pitfalls. 6. Staying Ahead with Proactive Planning: In the volatile world of geopolitics, situations can change overnight. Operators armed with comprehensive, up-to-date risk assessments are better prepared to make quick decisions, adapt to new information, and minimize disruptions. In conclusion, the need for thorough risk assessments in aviation is more pressing than ever. The dynamic geopolitical landscape demands a proactive, well-informed approach. For aircraft operators, charters, and airlines, this is not just about compliance—it's about safeguarding passengers, protecting assets, and securing a place of trust and reliability in a complex, interconnected world. Investing in proper risk assessments today is an investment in a safer, more assured tomorrow. Peace of mind Dyami offers a comprehensive One-Stop Aviation Security Solution to assist aviation security officers and dispatchers in enhancing their capabilities and capacity, streamlining operations, and bolstering security measures. Our solution aims to provide an affordable holistic approach to security risk management that results in more secure and efficient airline or charter operations. Visit dyami aviation for more information. About the author Eric Schouten worked as an aviation intelligence officer at the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service - AIVD. After a career of 13 years, he left with the aim of offering unique bespoke security & intelligence services to the aviation sector. Eric believes in collaboration and bringing expertise together. After his experiences with the attacks in New York during 9/11, espionage cases, and various terrorist plots and attacks, including the disaster with flight MH17, he established Dyami to ensure that security & intelligence services are made available in an accessible and cost-effective manner.
- Intel Brief an update on Hezbollah's Rising Influence in the Middle East
Date: 17/08/2023 Parties involved: Hezbollah, Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps), Syria’s president al-Assad, the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), Lebanese government. Recap: The terrorist organization Hezbollah has been provoking Israel by crossing the border between Lebanon and Israel and setting up tents in Israeli-held territory. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah called on his followers to prepare for war with Israel. Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon has been waning and therefore it seeks to deflect from its internal problems by picking a fight with Israel. Iran has upped its deliveries of money and weapons to Hezbollah increasing its capabilities to strike deep in the heart of Israel. Israel has not taken physical action against Hezbollah or Lebanon. What has happened since 14/07/2023? On 07/08/2023 the IDF arrested several Palestinian terrorists connected to a training facility in Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant spoke to the press on 07/08/2023 and threatened to “return Lebanon to the stone age” if Hezbollah attacked Israel. This marked a change in tactics for Israel by putting Lebanon on equal footing with Hezbollah. On 09/08/2023 a Hezbollah truck filled either with weapons, drugs or other illicit material turned over in an accident south of Beirut in a Christian neighborhood. When locals decided to mob the truck(driver), Hezbollah militants opened fire on the crowd killing at least two people. On 10/08/2023 an unknown gunman opened fire on the car carrying the Lebanese defense minister south of Beirut. No one was hurt in the attack. On 11/08/2023 Hezbollah decided to take one of the two tents down that had been set up in the north of Israel. Hezbollah gave a new warning that Israel risks open warfare if it destroys the remaining tent. A Hezbollah operative threw a molotov-cocktail at Israeli assets on the border in the north of Israel on 13/08/2023. The IDF did not open fire on the operative but know who the man is. Conclusion: The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have not gone down the last month. In a new change of events Israel has now put Lebanon and Hezbollah on equal footing and has threatened to attack Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks Israel. This could lead to a much larger confrontation than if Israel would only focus on Hezbollah as an enemy. This move makes the Lebanese government responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, but without a proper government it is not likely that Hezbollah can be fully curtailed. Iran, through the actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Brigade, has and will deliver more weapons and training to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. This will make a confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah significantly more large scale than previous confrontations. With the Lebanese economic and political system in turmoil it is hard to guess where the Lebanese army will stand if a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel erupts. But if Israel decides that the entire infrastructure of Lebanon is a legitimate target, the Lebanese army will be forced to join in battle. The coming weeks will see a rise in tension in the region, especially with Iran and the US bolstering up troops in the region and with Israel and Iran getting into more aggressive verbal confrontations about Iran’s nuclear programme.
- Intel Brief on Thailand’s Political Developments
Date: 24/08/2023 Who’s involved: Parties: Prayuth Chan-o-cha government, Thaksin Shinawatra, PM Srettha Thavisin, Move Forward Party (MFP), Pita Limjaroenrat, Myanmar. What happened? Thailand held elections on 14/05/2023 resulting in the nine year ruling military junta decisively losing to pro-democracy parties. The new progressive Move Forward Party won the overall vote. The party was founded in the midst of Thailand’s protests in 2020 with a program to break up economic monopolies, increase social welfare, and reduce the influence of the Thai military and monarchy. However, Pita Limjaroenrat, the MFP leader, could not secure enough votes from the military-controlled upper chamber to become prime minister. On 23/08/2023, the Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn instead appointed Srettha Thavisin as prime minister, following months of negotiation between candidates with the consent of the military. Despite its anti-establishment past, the Pheu Thai Party brokered a power-sharing deal with 11 other parties linked to the military to form a new government. On 23/08/2023, Thaksin Shinawatra managed to negotiate a return to Thailand after 16 years in exile. Prime minister between 2001 and 2006, he has been forced to accept the interests of the royalist and military factions which had launched a coup against him in 2006 for his social policies. On returning to Thailand, Thaksin was promptly handed out sentences by the Supreme Court for defaming the monarchy and corruption charges. However, it is expected that this will be shortened as he has negotiated with the military to reduce his jail time and play a large role in Thai politics through Srettha Thavisin. He has since been taken to hospital to be treated for several diseases. Analysis: The transformation of Thaksin Skinawatra from an enemy of the military to its compromise candidate is a new dynamic in Thai politics. The Thai conservative establishment saw Thaksin as a threat to the power of the military, with his influential Pheu Thai Party typically being seen as a political force for democracy. The Pheu Thai’s perceived acceptance of the conservative establishment in Thailand could lead to further protests in the country against the military’s machinations of the country’s politics. Further protests are not unlikely in Thailand. The MFP ran and won on a program of pro-democracy, yet its leader was rejected by the military establishment. The manipulation of the electoral system by elites to protect the monarchy and military establishment could disappoint the young people who voted for the MFP. Disenchantment with electoral politics could see street protests against the authoritarian lese majeste laws similar to the widespread protests that took place in 2020. On the international level, Thailand’s elections take place in the broader competition between China and the United States for influence in Southeast Asia. In terms of Thailand’s importance in Southeast Asia, there are two issues at stake. The military’s close relationship with China has led some Uyghurs fleeing China’s repressive policies to be deported from Thailand and returned to Xinjiang. For Myanmar, the Thai military is one of the strongest backers of the military junta in ASEAN. Whether Shinawatra will object to the deteriorating human rights situation and challenge the military’s accommodating position on the Myanmar regime remains to be seen. Conclusion With the closing of months of political in-fighting, Thailand has a new prime minister following nine years of military leadership. The military and the monarchy’s influence remains formidable in the current coalition. It remains to be seen how closely the Pheu Thai Party will contest the military in its policies toward Myanmar and China. The election poses a defeat for the country’s youth and democracy activists seeking to overturn the establishment and reinvigorate the country’s political system dominated by entrenched interests. Without taking on reforms, Thai politics could see further protests and political instability in the future. Despite this, Pheu Thai could at least provide a break from the incompetent military leadership which oversaw a slow economic recovery from COVID-19, faltering economic growth compared to Vietnam and Indonesia, and widespread corruption.
- Intel Brief on Northern Ireland
Date: 21/08/2023 Location: Northern Ireland, United Kingdom Parties involved: Northern Irish Paramilitary Groups (IRA, UDA, UVF), the Northern Ireland Assembly (Stormont), the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), the UK Government. The Events: The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) is experiencing a deepening data security crisis over the mishandling of personal information that could be used to target employees. On 08/08/2023 a spreadsheet was mistakenly published online containing the surnames, initials, ranks or grades, location, and departments of all current PSNI officers and civilian staff members. The data breach happened after the information was included in error in response to a Freedom of Information Request. It is understood to be the worst data breach in the organization’s history since its creation following the Good Friday Agreement. The data in the spreadsheet included information about officers based in the PSNI’s organized crime unit, officers based at ports and airports, and staff based at MI5 offices in Holywood, County Down. This is the second data breach in weeks after a police-issued laptop, radio and documents were stolen from a car in Northern Ireland on 06/07/2023. A third data breach occurred on 14/08/2023 after a document was posted online with details of 11 PSNI officers. The information remained online for 2 days before being taken down. The PSNI data is in the hands of dissident Republicans. On 14/08/2023 the PSNI leaked document was posted on a wall opposite a Sinn Fein office on Falls Road, West Belfast along with a threatening message. On 17/08/2023 a man was arrested in County Armagh on suspicion of collection of information likely to be useful to terrorists. The man was subsequently released on bail. On 19/08/2023 a second man was arrested and charged in County Derry/Londonderry under the Terrorism Act for being in possession of articles for use in terrorism. The investigation of criminality linked to last week’s PSNI data breach continues. Several PSNI members have applied for personal protection weapons due to the increased risk to their lives and property as a result of the data breaches. The Northern Irish Secretary announced that the UK government will be providing specialist support to the PSNI in order to mitigate the repercussions of the data breach crisis. Northern Ireland’s terrorism threat level is listed as severe by the MI5, meaning that a terrorist attack is highly likely. Political violence has been on the rise in Northern Ireland over the past year as the PSNI has come under attack from dissident Republicans. The Arm na Poblachta (Army of the Republic) said police officers' families would also be considered targets. On 22/02/2023, a senior police officer was shot whilst off-duty by masked gunmen of the New IRA in Omagh, County Tyrone. Loyalist paramilitaries also continue to be active in Northern Ireland. Paramilitary umbrella group, the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC), reported that Loyalist paramilitaries have withdrawn their support for the Good Friday Agreement. Violence related to drug feuds as well as other types of organized crime perpetrated by factions of the UVF and UDA (Loyalist) groups are almost a daily occurrence in Northern Ireland. Context: The Troubles were an ethno-nationalist conflict in Northern Ireland between Irish Republicans and British Unionists lasting for around 30 years since the late 1960s until 1998. The conflict ended with the signing of the (Belfast) Good Friday Agreement in 1998 stipulating the creation of a devolved Northern Irish government and the removal of British security installations which include those on the border. Renewed tensions in Northern Ireland can be linked to Brexit. The Northern Ireland Protocol with the EU came into force on 01/01/2021, where checks on goods and people traveling from Great Britain take place at Northern Ireland’s ports instead of at the Irish border. The Democratic Unionist Party argued that this places a de facto border in the Irish Sea, separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal was passed in the UK Parliament on 23/03/2023. This deal consists of 2 parts: the Westminster Framework and the Stormont Brake. The Westminster Framework intends to split goods traveling from the UK into two different lanes where only goods destined for Ireland and the rest of the EU would have to be checked. Moreover, the Stormont Brake would give the Northern Ireland Assembly powers to object to new EU rules. However, the European Court of Justice would still have a final say on whether Northern Ireland must follow certain EU single market rules. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has voted against the deal with Unionists arguing that Northern Ireland would remain imprisoned by the EU legal order, placing a barrier between them and the rest of the UK as Northern Ireland would not be able to properly diverge and take advantage of Brexit. The Northern Ireland Assembly has been suspended since February 2022, meaning that Northern Ireland continues to be without a functioning government. The power-sharing agreement which allows a government to be established has not been reached as the DUP, Northern Ireland’s largest Unionist party, has been boycotting Stormont over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Analysis and Implications: Considering that most recent attacks perpetrated by the New IRA have been targeted against members of the PSNI, the current data breaches are cause for serious concern. The fact that the IRA is now in the possession of very sensitive information has put staff members of the PSNI and their families in a very vulnerable position with many fearing for their safety. A number of PSNI officers and civilian workers have had to resign or relocate immediately, with some choosing to leave Northern Ireland altogether as a result of the heightened security risk. The PSNI is very likely to struggle with staff retention and recruitment, particularly among the Catholic community, at a time when numbers are already stretched. Therefore, the repercussions of the PSNI data security crisis are likely to be severe as the organization is in disarray and grappling with past wounds of the Troubles. The data breaches are likely to undermine the PSNI’s ability to combat terrorism and dissidence from paramilitary groups opposed to the peace process. The intelligence operations of the PSNI have especially been compromised with the identity of undercover operatives infiltrating extremist organizations being revealed. A robust intelligence apparatus is vital in order to identify and assess potential terrorist operations and targets, thus the disruption to the PSNI’s intelligence system is probable to cause a window of opportunity for political dissidents and criminal gangs. The current PSNI intelligence operatives, particularly those responding to the MI5, are expected to be replaced, which will pose more difficulties as new staff will need training and adjustment to the local security landscape. Moreover, the grave effect the data breaches have had on individual police morale may further disrupt policing efforts. As previously concluded by Dyami, terrorist attacks are likely to be small-scale and targeted at members of the PSNI. The data breaches, however, have increased the likelihood that such attacks will occur as it has armed the New IRA with priceless intelligence on desired targets. With the PSNI currently operating at a disadvantage, such attacks may also be harder to pre-empt. Consequently, there is a greater risk to the general public as any attack may produce collateral damage. Whilst there have been no reports of significant incidents thus far, dissidents may be trying to organize on how to best leverage their advantage considering their limited capability. Northern Ireland’s paramilitary organizations have little support among its various communities and no backing among any major political parties. Therefore, paramilitary groups will probably use the data breaches to spread fear and intimidate communities in hope to stoke up tensions. On the other hand, the PSNI has chosen to meet the present data security crisis with strength and resilience. Its prompt investigation into the criminality surrounding the data breaches and subsequent arrests show an organization that is up and running despite the ensuing struggles. The PSNI will be receiving specialist support and expertise from the UK government which should aid in the mitigation of the security risks the Northern Irish police force is facing today. It is vital that the general public is reassured that the PSNI will not allow itself to be intimidated or prevented from performing vital work by paramilitary groups. Undoubtedly, the current situation in Northern Ireland has called attention to the importance of data security for government institutions which could be misused by criminal organizations. The mitigation of the crisis will depend on devising new and secure databases where personnel data is spread across multiple access tiers. Furthermore, the PSNI data security crisis may have consequences for the UK’s Brexit process. The security threats presented by the data breaches call for the immediate reactivation of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions in order to mitigate the impacts of the crisis and allocate resources and budgets for law enforcement. But the DUP, who originally collapsed the Northern Ireland Assembly in February 2022, may use the data security crisis to extract concessions from the UK government on the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol. Northern Ireland’s tentative and incomplete post-Troubles cohesion presents a fragile peace that could have sectarian politics spill onto the streets if the delicate balance is disturbed. Westminster will be dealing with a complex challenge in pushing for the restoration of power-sharing, but so far it has neglected the developing crisis. The stability of Northern Ireland has security ramifications for the whole of the UK, and any push in any direction or the other could foment violence or support for paramilitaries. The PSNI data breach will have serious repercussions extending far into the future. This particularly involves the personal security of PSNI staff members who will have to take exceptional measures to protect themselves and their families. The data security crisis in Northern Ireland has provided terrorists with a window of opportunity to conduct small-scale targeted attacks against members of the PSNI. Presently, there is still a committed minority of political extremists in Northern Ireland who are prepared to use any opportunity to meet their political agenda through fear and intimidation. Lastly, the data security crisis may also be exploited by the DUP to reshape the Brexit balance due to the urgent need for Westminster to restore the Northern Ireland Assembly to working order.
- Intel Brief on China’s Military Exercises in the Taiwan Strait
Date: 01/09/2023 Who’s involved: Republic of China (Taiwan), Biden Administration, China People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Communist Party of China. What happened? On 30/08/2023, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported several PLA fighter aircraft and naval patrol ships crossing the Strait Median Line between Taiwan and China. Tensions have risen in recent months as incursions violating Taiwanese airspace have picked up since the beginning of August 2023. On 30/08/2023, the Biden administration approved $80 billion in military assistance to Taiwan under a program that grants assistance to independent, sovereign states. Since Taiwan is not recognised as a sovereign state under the US, this reflects a change of policy. The State Department has utilized the funds to improve Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities against China’s emerging military capabilities. China’s Foreign Ministry strongly objected to the further sales of arms to Taiwan and remains firmly opposed to “factors that could lead to tensions in the Taiwan Strait”. On 19/08/2023, Beijing launched extensive military drills following Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te’s visits to New York and San Francisco for meetings with top US political leaders. He is the frontrunner in the presidential race scheduled in January 2024. China is opposed to Lai because he suggested he was working for Taiwan’s Independence, though he has moderated his comments during the campaign to maintain the status quo. The People’s Liberation Army warned that the drills were a response to “Taiwan’s independence’ forces colluding with external forces”. Analysis The military assistance for Taiwan is part of the Biden administration’s strategy to re-arm Taiwan and deter Beijing’s intimidation and military exercises. The strategy is primarily viewed in military terms; to bolster Taiwan’s military capabilities and prepare against an invasion of the island by the PLA. The Biden administration scored a diplomatic win for regional security in East Asia by nudging US allies Japan and South Korea to establish closer security ties after years of frosty relations. While this might prove to deter the PLA from a invasion of the island, China could feel threatened by encirclement. Beijing’s military threats toward the island are intended to put pressure on Taiwan’s public to reject Taiwan’s pro-independence political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the coming presidential January 2024 election. Xi Jinping’s refusal to rule out lethal force in its dealings with Taiwan raises fears of an attempt to invade the island. While analysts do not believe that China’s military, navy and air capabilities are sufficient for a direct confrontation, accidents can happen. With the mutual hostility between the US and China, crises in the Taiwan Straits will require extensive restraint on both sides. The polls show that the DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te is far ahead, but faces a challenge from the Kuomintang party and a third party candidate started. Taiwan’s relationship with China is a major political issue in the upcoming presidential election in January 2024. The Democratic People’s Party is running a new candidate, Lai Ching-te who is seeking closer ties to the US, though he has softened his stance on outright independence for Taiwan. The Kuomintang candidate meets with Chinese Communist Party officials and argues that a more moderate approach toward China can cool down tensions. Voters are broadly in support of maintaining the ‘status quo’. Conclusion The lack of trust between the US and China is threatening democratic Taiwan’s future security. Both sides accuse each other of breaking the status quo established in 1992 to keep Taiwan under the sovereignty of Beijing, while the US could unofficially maintain relations with Taiwan. The Communist Party of China under Xi Jinping has repeatedly made statements that it would not reject the use of force to achieve the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” by 2049. With Xi’s accession to an unprecedented third term in October 2022, he has surrounded himself with loyalists who are less likely to object to policy catastrophes, such as an invasion of Taiwan. Tensions are rising and the outbreak of conflict would be catastrophic for the region, threatening the lives of millions.
- Dyami unveils presence in Copenhagen, Denmark!
Expanding our horizons: We are thrilled to announce a significant milestone in our journey of building our company. Dyami is proud to open its doors to a new office in the vibrant city of Copenhagen, Denmark. Bringing Security Intelligence to the Danish Market We have always been dedicated to providing top security intelligence services. With the establishment of our Copenhagen office, we are excited to extend these services to the Danish market. Why Denmark? Denmark's strategic location and dynamic business environment make it an ideal hub for our bespoke solutions. Our presence here underscores our commitment to meeting the evolving needs of Danish businesses, organizations, & government entities. What to Expect Our Copenhagen office will serve as a local hub for our expert team, ready to provide tailored security solutions to our Danish clients. We are well-equipped to address a wide range of security challenges, from espionage awareness, bespoke security training, security risk & intelligence management to travel risk management services. Join Us in This Exciting Journey We invite you to join us in celebrating this momentous occasion as we embark on a new chapter of growth and service excellence. Whether you are a current client, a potential partner, or a member of the Danish community interested in security intelligence, we look forward to connecting with you and exploring how Dyami can support your needs. Stay tuned for upcoming events and initiatives as we integrate ourselves into the Danish market. For inquiries or to learn more about our services, please feel free to reach out to our Copenhagen office; at sophie@dyami.services or eric@dyami.services. Dyami is honored to become a part of the dynamic Danish landscape and looks forward to contributing to the security and resilience of businesses and organizations across the country. dyami | count on us
- Intel Brief on Gabon Coup d’Etat
Date: 31/08/2023 Who’s involved: President Bongo, the military, the gendarmerie, civil society. What happened? On 30/08/2023 a group of military commanders announced a coup d’etat on national television, saying they were not pleased with the results of the elections announced the day before. Gabon held elections on 26/08/2023, but the results were only announced yesterday evening. President Ali Bongo won and was re-elected with 64% of the votes, according to the electoral commission, but the opposition denounced the results as fraudulent. President Bongo is the son of Omar Bongo, who had been president of the country since 1967 and who died in 2009 handing over power to his son, who has been in power since. The coup leaders have since put President Bongo under house arrest and announced that they have support throughout the country and military. The Internet was shut down for a few hours after the election results came in but has since been restored by the coup leaders. Like previous coups in Niger, CAR, Mali and Burkina Faso, the special forces of the army of Gabon seem to be heavily involved in the coup. These forces are all trained and supplied by US special forces. French mining company Eramet has halted all operations in the country, which is a former French colony and has had close ties with France ever since. The US and the EU have condemned the coup d’etat. The US has close military ties to Gabon and uses the country as staging grounds for operations in Africa. Analysis: It is likely that the coup d’etat will be challenged by forces loyal to President Bongo. A coup attempt in 2019 was thwarted by Gendarmerie Special Forces, loyal to President Bongo. At the moment, the Gendarmerie has not yet responded to this coup attempt but in 2019 were very resolute and killed and arrested the then coup leaders. There have been reports of gunfire in the streets of Libreville, but it is uncertain whether this is confrontational or celebratory fire. France seems to be reluctant to get involved with the coups d’etats that have recently happened in former French colonies. However, big French multinational companies like Total and Eramet have a large stake in the Gabon oil and mining industry, which makes French neutrality unlikely in the long-run. France’s support of President Bongo is well known and it is very likely that Paris will push the African Union to denounce the coup and perhaps intervene militarily. The United States will likely take a more neutral stance towards the coup leaders. They will publicly condemn the coup, but they are interested in keeping Gabon as a staging ground for operations in Africa, especially since Niger’s coup d’etat. The US has invested a lot of money and manpower into training and equipping the Gabon army the past years. China and Russia have voiced their concerns over the coup d’etat. China has good economic ties with president Bongo’s government and may noy want to renegotiate deals with the coup leaders. Russia on the other hand is likely to see the coup as another opportunity to send in affiliated mercenaries to support the coup leaders. However, it is not likely that the coup leaders will want to share power with mercenary groups like Wagner, since they claim their coup is to establish a democratic government in Gabon. There are also no terrorist groups in Gabon that are overwhelming the army as is the case for Niger, Mali or Burkina Faso, which reduces the need for calling for an external military intervention. Conclusion As of the time of publication, there is not enough information that could help understanding how this coup attempt will unfold. The coup leaders are from different branches of the army but it is not known how far-reaching their actual influence is. The Gendarmerie’s support (or lack thereof) for Bongo remains the cardinal question mark. Countries like France, the EU, but also Russia and China have denounced the coup publicly. It is, however, unclear what the covert interests of these countries are. The African Union’s reply to the coup d’etat will clarify their stance and the possibility of a military intervention of African nations.
- Dyami supports the 2021 Kabul Evacuation
On April 7th, Dyami was featured in a Dutch investigative report by Zembla about the evacuation of Kabul, Afghanistan, in 2021. Have a look at how founder / CEO Eric Schouten and Dyami Operations manager Annick Dingemans, among others, supported over 250 people who needed help in Kabul to get to the Airport in order to catch one of the military evacuation flights. Watch de episode - Zembla: Missie Afghanistan: de hel van Kabul - here (Dutch) Listen to the Zembla Podcast - een reconstructie van de evacuatie uit Kabul (dutch) Interview about the situation in Kabul at the Humberto Tan Talkshow (episode 59) February 18 2022, Dutch Investigative Radioshow Argos had an episode about the ordeal two sisters had to endure while evacuating from Kabul. Since Dingemans supported the sisters, she appears in the item talking about the case. Listen to the episode - Argos Drama bij evacuatie Kabul - here (in Dutch) More information about the efforts in August and September. https://www.dyami.services/post/dyami-s-crisis-navigation-kabul More video clips from news outlets can be found on the Dyami Youtube Channel Dyami Operations Room Kabul Evacuation 2021 (screenshot from Zembla) Dyami supports organisations by keeping their people safe and secure. Are you in need of our emergency response services? > Watch the episode - Zembla: Missie Afghanistan: De hel van Kabul (2/2) - here (in Dutch)












