Search dyami insights

Be aware that the security situation in #Peru is deteriorating by the hour amid political unrest. Roadblocks and the closure of several airports due to rioting have caused people to get stuck without supplies coming in, creating a dangerous situation for all that may spiral out of control soon. Our team at dyami | strategic security services produced a short report on the situation, including tips and support for travellers stranded.

Date: 12/12/2022 Time: 1800hrs Location: Kosovo/Serbian Border Area Parties Involved: Kosovo Military/Government, Serbian Military/Government, the European Union, NATO, and the UN. Summary: Road blocks, protests, and small arms fire have been reported over the past 24 hours in northern Kosovo. Serbia has summoned its ministers to review the security situation on its border with Kosovo. The EU, NATO, and the US have all voiced their backing of the UN mandated KFOR mission, which has the authority to intervene if the situation warrants it. Airlines, companies, and bordering nations should keep a close watch on current events, as this flare up is only one of half a dozen similar incidents over the past 12 months. The Event(s): Ethnic Serbs in the region were outraged by the arrest of a Serbian policeman and have put up road blockades at the border crossings from Kosovo to Serbia on 10/12/2022, as a sign of protest to the escalating tensions. In the night of 10/12/2022, Kosovan law enforcement was reportedly attacked by a gunman at one of the blockades and a stun-grenade was thrown at a car belonging to the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX). This was followed by an individual being detained by Kosovan authorities. Movement of Serbian armored personnel carriers and support vehicles were reported by OSINT channels in the late hours of 11/12/2022. While not unusual, their direction of travel indicated that these vehicles were moving towards the Kosovo border. Shortly after, in the city of Mitrovica [West of Prestina], authorities reported various small scale explosions and clashes with police. The Serbian government has called an emergency session on the 12/12/2022 of its ministers to review the ongoing security situation on its border with Kosovo. Meanwhile, KFOR, the EU, and the United States, have reiterated their commitment to maintaining peace within the region; and KFOR is considering measures that are inclusive of forcefully removing the blockades created within the next 48 hours. Analysis: The relationship between Kosovo and Serbia is complex and strained. The majority of the population in this region is Albanian (1.2 million), with a small ethically Serb population of (120,000), many of whom do not recognize Kosovo's independence. This has led to disputes over control of the border, including a war in 1998/1999, with both Kosovo and Serbia asserting their authority over the region since the fall of Yugoslavia. Since 2008, Kosovo has been a partially recognized state in the Balkan region of Europe. However, Serbia continues to claim it as an autonomous province. The events over the weekend of 10/12/2022 are one of many small-scale flare ups over the past months, with the most prominent blockades and the use of small arms fire taking place in May and late July, 2022. These were related to license plate regulation disputes. With the events on 11/12/2022-12/12/2022, the small scale explosions that were heard are most likely to be from fireworks and flashbangs being used in the protests. This is of importance as there is much misinformation being spread on the movements of Kosovo, KFOR, and Serbian Security Forces, about what their intentions/actions are, and if/when shootings have occurred. What is known is that KFOR and Kosovan law enforcement are on high alert for any potential short term escalation. This could have consequences for the borders of regional players, such as Croatia, Albania and North Macedonia. If KFOR decides to intervene and remove the road blockades, they might be met with resistance from armed ethnically Serb groups, which would lead to further escalation. In addition, depending on how far escalations go, there is a genuine threat to civil aviation as Serbia possesses Surface-to-Air missiles with a range of 27 km; such as the Chinese made FK-3. Concluding notes: The current situation on the ground in Kosovo shows the hallmark signs of similar escalations over the past few months. While blockades, small scale protests, and limited use of small arms fire may seem worrying to most, it is far more concerning that the timespan between these events is shortening. It stands now within reason that tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are spiraling, and are worth keeping a close watch on. The main risks, apart from a conflict breaking out, are anchored on road access throughout the region, airspace security, and the border security of countries neighboring the region. For more in-depth Sitreps, analyses, or bespoke advice on the security and safety concerns regarding this region, or other areas across the globe, please contact Dyami at +31 30 207 2120 or through our webpage.

Date: 24/11/2022 - Ongoing Published: 16:45h Location: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Urumqi (Xinjiang), Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Lanzhou, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang, Korla, Urumqi and Hotan. Parties involved: CCP Government, The civil population of (communist) China, Republic of Government (Taiwan), Taiwanese civil population, Singapore Government. The Event/s: Since January of 2020, Chinese citizens have been living under some of the harshest Covid-19 lockdown measures under what is known as the CCP’s “Zero Covid Policy.” While small scale protests have occurred since the policy’s implementation, in the recent two weeks, a large flare up of anti-Zero Covid Protests have occurred. On 14/11/2022 Ghangzhou erupted into a mass of protests after the city was plunged into another lockdown, which resulted in barricades being pushed down by a large crowd of people. On 23/11/2022 Foxconn employees (famous for making Apple products) protested against their employer, which while focused on pay, quickly devolved into an all out protest against the state. 25/11/2022 Protesters gathered in the city of Urumqi after a building within the city was set ablaze, killing 10 people who were unable to leave the building due to Chinese authorities. Vigils were organized in multiple cities on the 26/11/2022 - 28/11/2022, which have also been suppressed by Chinese security forces. The harsh treatment of mourners, plus covid-19 protestors, have jointly started chanting for the resignation of the CCP’s president, Xi Jinping. Analysis and implications: There has not been a protest of this scale since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre. Said protests occurred over a very small span of time, they pleaded for the right to openly criticize the government, better representation of non-communist parties, as well as being able to travel outside of China and apply to different jobs. During the Tiananmen Square protest, troops armed with assault rifles and accompanied by tanks fired at the demonstrators. Estimates of the death toll vary from several hundred to several thousand, with more than thousand more wounded. While the current protests are in many ways being compared to Tiananmen square, they differ in three main capacities: Protestors are asking for an end to the current covid measures, which are being blamed on Xi Ping’s administration, not CCP government. The proliferation of their occurrence is wider than that of the 1990’s (due in no small part to the proliferation of modern social media). Chinese police are taking a softer approach to dispersing protestors; using covid-19 enforcement staff (known as the “white men”) and riot police, but notably not armed (for now). Of note, the demographics of these protests fall outside of the conventional western notion of civil disobedience (young, marginalized, or extremists). From the OSINT footage being shared on Chinese social media (such as TikTok), the demographic spans all ages and both sexes. The demographic facets are of concern to supply chains, as factory workers are abandoning their posts in the thousands, which could lead to breakdowns in manufacturing processes. In addition, the effects of these protests are concerning for regional players within Asia, as any internal ripple within the CCP could have dire consequences for the states’ legacy adversaries; such as Taiwan and Singapore. For Taiwan, a recent call for a peaceful resolution to these protests on the Chinese mainland from its newly elected government, under President Tsai Ing-wen, has aggravated the tensions between the two countries. On the other side of the political spectrum, Singapore has cracked down on any sign of protest against the Chinese government within the city-state. Authorities have even gone to the extent of arresting a “one woman” protest in front of the Chinese embassy. This is plausibly a result of over 500 Chinese multimillion dollar companies quietly moving to the small country in order to avoid political repression/monitoring/risk from the CCP over the past 12 months. Concluding notes: Currently, it seems unlikely that these protests will prompt a seismic change in government within China. Instead, it is plausible that a harsh and swift response will be applied by the various governments of cities across China, and perhaps after the unrest occurs, some political figures are moved/hashed in order to quell low levels discerned within the CCP. This short term escalation in violence is likely to result in continued lockdowns and perhaps even to the extreme of martial law; which is likely to disrupt domestic supply chains in the short term. For international players, their future is highly dependent on the level of discourse they are willing to take as a response to these events. In the case of Taiwan, if it continues showing support for the protestors on the mainland, it is likely that more hyperbolic statements will be made by the CCP’s foreign affairs. Further escalations are likely to follow, such as additional military exercises both on the mainland and in international waters surrounding Taiwan. However, it is still unlikely that such support will be used as a basis to carry out direct military action against the Island state. For business, airlines, and NGOs working within China and its surrounding countries, it is important to keep up to date with current events, take stock of what implications these events may have, and contingency plan for crisis situations. If you require more in depth analysis or help with any of the former mentioned angles to your business, please contact Dyami at +31 30 207 2120 or through our webpage.

Today the analyst team at Dyami released a new Intelligence Brief - The Right Wing Extremist Reichsbürger Movement. A large-scale police operation involving 3000 police officers took place, where 25 people were arrested across Germany and two individuals in Austria and Italy, who were planning to violently overthrow the German government.

We are delighted to announce that dyami | strategic security services has signed a services agreement with Dutch-based Quooker. Quooker is about to conquer the rest of the world. The ambition: to supply as many private kitchens as possible with boiling water in a smart and responsible way. To achieve that, Quooker in Ridderkerk, Holland, has more than 450 people working on new technical ideas and design solutions to make the taps even more efficient, even easier to use and even more attractive. Through our partnership with Quooker, we will support their ambition with our security as a service solution. Delivering bespoke geopolitical forecasting reports for the countries where Quooker operates, keeping track of threats that might affect their supply chain and supporting their business travellers with country briefs, travel security training and travel risk management. Thanks to Michiel Van Veen, Chief Supply Chain Officer, for initiating our partnership. And thanks to Lyne Biewinga from NBCC for facilitating this. About Dyami At dyami we believe in creating cost-effective resilience by offering - Security as a Service - a low-cost security solution for companies. Dyami acts as the security department for your organisation. Clients who choose the dyami security as a service subscription receive comprehensive access to our security and analyst specialists like we are part of your team. Safeguard your people, operations and assets! https://www.dyami.services/security-as-a-service About Quooker Quooker is a family firm, based on enthusiasm and entrepreneurship. The pride of Henri Peteri, father of Quooker directors Walter and Niels Peteri and inventor of the boiling-water tap, is still tangible. The Quooker was the very first boiling-water tap in the world. Inventions like the high-vacuum insulated tank, the all-in-one taps Quooker Fusion and Flex and the series of black boiling-water taps brought about a revolution in the kitchen. Innovation 'around the sink' still continues every day. www.quooker.com

We are so proud of our talented operations manager and security professional Annick Dingemans who is featured in the special edition of JASON Institute Magazine. Covering this generation's voice on #peace and #security issues >> 35 under 35. In this special edition of the magazine, JASON Institute featured 35 young professionals who work in the field of peace and security and are under the age of 35. The institute decided to approach the field of security broadly. So, besides geopolitical analysts and members of the Dutch Armed Forces, you will also find experts in climate security and journalists in this magazine. As JASON is an organisation by and for young professionals, the purpose of this list is to give this generation a platform and let different voices be heard on the most pressing issues of our time. The people on this list are the ones that we will need to get through current crises and secure a future for the generations to come. We need them now more than ever. Read more in the JASON online edition,

Control over the production of advanced digital technologies is an intensifying field of interest in international security. To approach this, the Biden administration has proposed a ‘Chip 4 Alliance’ to promote semiconductor supply chain security in East Asia, in addition to the comprehensive sanctions intending to cripple China’s technological development launched in October 2022. The success of the unilateral sanctions depends crucially on mobilizing support among the United States’ allies which are vital links in the semiconductor supply chain. Yet the proposed alliance faces acute difficulties in coming to an agreement. Amid regional rivalries, a lack of a shared approach toward China, and a diverging view of business interests, could the new US sanctions push forward a Chip 4 Alliance? What’s Behind the Chip 4 Alliance? The United States push for the Chip 4 Alliance stems from their concerns over China’s increasing technological capabilities. Beijing became acutely aware of its dependencies on overseas technologies when the US prevented Huawei from purchasing needed American software and hardware in 2019. According to a report by Nikkei Asia, China has responded by creating internal agencies of industry leaders and political officials with the aim of becoming self-sufficient in semiconductor capacities. Companies with established links with Chinese industry leaders, such as Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, are developing new capabilities. On 7 October, the United States imposed far-reaching sanctions on China’s tech sector. These unilateral restrictions are intended to slow China’s technological progress with tight controls on high-end chip transfers between US firms and China subsidiaries. Penalties are intended to curtail key choke points and place a broad set of constraints on technological transfer that could be used for military purposes. Additionally, the United States claims China’s technological development is used in human rights abuses. Example of the close links between China’s tech companies and the security state are the widespread surveillance of Uyghur, Kazakh and other Muslim minorities in China. The US recognizes that stunting China’s technological development requires cooperation from its allies in East Asia. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are home to the world’s most advanced stages of the semiconductor supply chain and their companies sell, produce, and rely on China’s industrial centers for semiconductors. The Chip 4 Alliance would enable governments and semiconductor companies to coordinate policies on supply chain security, workforce development, research, and subsidies. The priority is to develop standards intended to limit China’s domestic semiconductor development. Unresolved Issues The Chip 4 Alliance has struggled to take off. Internal rifts between South Korea and Japan remain with an ongoing trade dispute over the historical legacies of the Second World War. In 2018, previous South Korean President Moon Jae-In ordered two Japanese companies to pay compensation for forced labor during Japan’s occupation of the Korean peninsula between 1910 and 1945. Both Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea’s newly elected president Yoon are attempting to cool relations in the interest of regional security. Yet both presidents are treading lightly to avoid nationalist issues coming to the fore. South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea is sensitive to Japan-South Korean relations and Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has a conservative wing resistant to rekindling relations. Under the Yoon administration, South Korea has avoided overtly politicizing economic relations with China. President Yoon has pushed for ‘mutual respect’ with China and is pursuing closer military relations with the US. Yet South Korean policymakers recognize that joining an alliance would harm its relationship with China. In August, China and South Korea established a Collaborative Supply Chain Council aimed at reducing disruptions in bilateral trade. While it is an essential partner in the semiconductor supply chain, joining the Alliance might push China to refuse to cooperate with South Korea over key issues. With North Korea’s escalating nuclear missiles tests, South Korea acknowledges that China is the only country with influence over its neighbor. Multinationals are also resistant to sharing information with rivals in the fiercely competitive electronics sector. Samsung Foundry has resisted sharing materials or designs which could be used by their rivals like Taiwanese TSMC or US-based Intel. More problematically, China remains the largest production hub as well as the largest market for vast multinational firms. For a region where the Cold War never truly ended, the powerful business interests driving internationalized production networks known as ‘Factory Asia’ have always been conducted in the context of ‘hot economics, cold politics.’ Without a substantial change in regional security, the powerful business lobbies are unwilling to permanently damage their competitiveness for national security. Changing Security Architecture in East Asia? A Forecast With the recent US sanctions, the slow pace of the Chip 4 Alliance could be changing. Multinationals with subsidiaries in China will face tough export controls on exporting back to the US. Japanese firms are facing difficulties in exporting to the States in light of US sanctions and may attempt to hedge supply chain security over competitiveness. In the long-term, planning for the fallout of an invasion of Taiwan could be a prudent business decision. Moreover, the fear of Chinese economic sanctions against tech multinationals could be overblown. Chinese economic pressure has been aimed at commodities with easy substitutes such as iron ore and primary commodities. Would China’s leadership seriously consider economic sanctions on companies that are vital to securing a position in the fiercely competitive semiconductor sector? Yet China’s economic weight and regional tensions still play a vital role. China makes up the fastest-growing market for semiconductor demand, as well as where most production is located. Companies are slow behind national governments in perceiving China as a strategic competitor as they still invest heavily in the country, where China’s economy has moved from low-cost assembly to rapidly adopt new skills and technology. However, East Asian states do share US concerns over China’s military modernization and see it as an immediate security threat. North Korea’s massive escalation in nuclear weaponry, competition in the South China Sea, and the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan in this decade will make security policymakers fear resolutely taking a firm joint (economic) stance with the United States. Ultimately, the Chip 4 Alliance has profound implications for security in the Taiwan Strait. Enhancing cooperation between US allies could improve supply chain security and information sharing in the semiconductor industry. Yet achieving technological dominance in semiconductors is the ultimate goal of Xi Jinping's techno-security state. Forming a Chip 4 Alliance could stunt the Chinese Communist Party’s technological development in the long term. Systematically locked out of semiconductor ambitions, the CCP could decide that the economic fallout from an invasion of Taiwan’s semiconductor sector is a small price to pay for the rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation. While it is too soon to gauge China’s response, the mutually assured economic destruction of an invasion of Taiwan could become too one-sided to be effective. About the author: Jacob Dickinson Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has travelled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes subjects like the geopolitics of energy, China’s international political economy, and the implications of globalized supply chains for industrial policy. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.

Date: 10/10/2022. 2100hrs. Location: Moldova, Black Sea. Parties involved: Russian Government, Russian Navy, and Moldovan Government. The Event: At 0600hrs on 08/10/2022, the Crimean Bridge was critically damaged with explosives [Right Image.]. While the cause of the blast is unclear, it has rendered the road bridge and adjacent railway head unusable for Russian military logistics. In retaliation, at 0800hrs on 10/10/2022, the Russian MOD fired volleys of guided rocket systems in Ukrainian cities, most notably Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Lviv [Left Image]. In order to hit Khmelnytskyi, the Russian Navy fired 3x Sea borne guided munitions from the black sea, which penetrated Moldovan Airspace. While most of Moldovan Airspace has been closed since 24/02/2022, flights from international carriers to LUKK/Chisinau airport have been permitted access by Moldovan ATC. Russian MOD announced later in the morning of 10/10/2022 that these rocket strikes, totaling 70+, were in retaliation to the Crimean Bridge attack. Buildings housing prominent international entities such as the German Consulate, Samsung, and Kyiv’s thermal power plant were hit and geo-located within hours. Analysis and implications: The recent rocket attacks pose an immediate and deliberate attempt by the Russian MOD to destabilize the security of the airspaces overlapping the Black Sea. Due to the civilian nature of the targets, it is likely that respect for International Conventions on Human Rights Laws/Laws of Armed Conflict will deteriorate further within this conflict. Additional attacks by the Russian MOD are likely to occur in the following days to this intelligence report publication. Strikes are likely to occur with little prior warning and may penetrate Moldovan airspace again. Retaliatory strikes by Ukrainian Forces may occur on key Russian targets in Crimea, Russian-occupied areas within Ukraine, and even within Russia’s borders. Previously assumed “safe” areas within Ukraine for NGOs are likely to be considered fair targets from henceforth. Private businesses are likely to be caught in the crossfire or targeted deliberately too. Concluding notes: It is important for airlines to take note of these events in the Black Sea. Active planning, monitoring, and risk assessing are vital to ensure the safety of operations, people, assets, and reputation. For private businesses and NGOs, it is important to take these recent events into account when considering their security profiles within the country. Hostile Environment Awareness Training [HEAT] is critical to mitigate the negative externalities of these events. For best results, first aid courses should also be considered. About Dyami Aviation Services Our experts have extensive aviation security and intelligence experience at the highest international level; for airlines and corporate jet operators alike. Our services are broad: from AOC application support, security policy design, threat assessments, to crew training. Our security risk & threat assessments focus on overflight risk during flight operations. They contain actionable intelligence to ensure a safe and secure operation. Is it safe for your crew to operate the planned route? What is the actual situation regarding (geo)political factors, crime, corruption, espionage, terrorism or health risks? Our extensive reports are easily understandable to allow you to anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. >> https://www.dyami.services/risk-threat-assessments About PMO Security Risk Management PMO Security Risk Management, FKA Praeventia, is a social enterprise specialized in resolving health, safety, and security issues for humanitarian organizations operating overseas. We are part of PMO-Excellence, specialized in Project management and led by Diana van Heerden MsC PMP. We primarily serve the non-profit sector, specifically humanitarian organizations. The basis for our way of working is a personal approach, competitive pricing, integrity, and, last but not least, global expertise. PMO Security Risk Management is led by William van Heerden, a registered independent safety and security consultant since 2009. Since then, safety and security consultancies have been carried out in more than 53 countries. >> https://pmo-srm.org/aboutus2020/ About Flight Level 470 Flight Level 470 is a growing network with VIP Cabin Crew, Dassault Falcon, Bombardier Global, Gulfstream Captains, First Officers, Instructors, Examiners, Test Pilots, Flight Operational Managers. Our main goal is to have Air Crew only recommended by other FL470 users. We are building a trust-worthy and respectable air crew network, which is now well known in the Aviation Sphere. We can provide the best solution, with the shortest notice, in crewing, consulting and selling. >> www.flightlevel470.com

Date: 08/11/2022 Location: London, United Kingdom Parties involved: The Government of the United Kingdom, Metropolitan Police, Just Stop Oil protesters and supporters, commuters on the M25, businesses in the wider metropolitan London area. Summery: Just Stop Oil protesters climbed onto the M25, which is Britain’s busiest motorway. The activist group demands a halt on all new oil and gas licenses and contents. The protests lead to major disruptions for commuters and supply chains. Emergency services were unable to reach destinations. Climate protests are intensifying. The Event: On Monday 07/11/2022 at 07.30 local time Just Stop Oil protesters climbed onto Britain’s busiest motorway. The M25, which encircles around most of Greater London, was subjected to protesters climbing onto overhead gantries, both clockwise and anti-clockwise, as part of their campaign to demand that the government halts all new oil and gas licenses and consents. As a result of the protesters causing chaos during rush hour, the M25 motorway had to be closed in parts for more than a hour, causing massive tailbacks and subsequent gridlock. Following the demonstrations on Monday, the Metropolitan police announced that they arrested 35 protesters in response to the disruption. They are suspected of conspiracy to cause public nuisance, and may potentially face up to ten years in prison. Since the start of the Just Stop Oil protests on 01/04/2022, police have arrested nearly 2.000 supporters of the protest group. Five of them are currently serving time in prison. Matt Twist, who is the current Assistant Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police, branded the demonstrations as “criminality” with the intention of disrupting thousands of people’s lives. On 08/11/2022, protesters from Just Stop Oil blocked the M25 for the second day running, with rush hour traffic brought to a standstill. In similar fashion to yesterday’s disruptions, several junctions were blocked due to protesters climbing onto overhead gantries, causing police to halt traffic. Police warned commuters to find alternative routes, while traffic was being stopped in both directions. Just Stop Oil made a public statement regarding the demonstration: “Our supporters will be returning - today, tomorrow and the next day - and the next day after that - and every day until our demand is met: no new oil and gas in the UK.". Analysis and implications: The M25, otherwise known as the London “Ring Road”, is a major road surrounding most of Greater London. The 117-mile motorway is one of the most important roads in the United Kingdom as well as one of the busiest. A protest on this motorway will affect thousands of commuters going to work, as well as supply chains being disrupted or not meeting their scheduled times. This may result in massive economic turmoil. Just Stop Oil protests and demonstrations will affect many businesses who operate in the United Kingdom. Due to the disruptions, traffic came to a complete standstill the past two days. This also means that emergency services like ambulances can not get to their destinations, whether this is a hospital or the location of an incident. The possibility of someone passing away in an ambulance, or at the scene of an incident due to traffic delays is very much possible. A similar incident like this has happened on 29/10/2022, when Just Stop Oil protesters caused a massive congestion on and near the Dartford Bridge. Two women got into a crash, but due to the high levels of traffic being piled up, the ambulance was delayed in arriving, leading to their deaths. A bystander trying to help the women while waiting for the ambulance to arrive made a statement to the press: “The protestors may not have intended to hurt anyone, but they’ve got blood on their hands now”. The Metropolitan Police have announced that more than 10.000 officer shifts had been dedicated to policing the protests since the start of October. These are officers who would otherwise be dealing with issues that matter to local communities, such as knife crime, safeguarding and responding to burglaries. The need for police interference during the Just Stop Oil protests on the M25 results in less officers being available for the issues listed above. Concluding notes: If protest group Just Stop Oil decides to follow up their statement and create another disruption on the M25 like they announced, more economic disruption may follow and result in difficulties for society. There is also a high possibility of death being the result of congestion, as emergency health services can get stuck in traffic due to the protests. Just Stop Oil may also take inspiration from the recent invasion of the private jet section at Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands on 05/11/2022. There is a chance of the protesters targeting airports in the United Kingdom as well. Additionally, protests may also get more extreme, as well as the behavior of commuters against the supporters of Just Stop Oil. If the demonstrations continue, there may be an increase in violence against the protesters from frustrated travelers who are affected by the M25 coming to a standstill. About Dyami Strategic Security Services In our contemporary multipolar world, political situations and local realities are continuously shifting. If you operate globally, you have to prepare for the impact of unforeseen events in every region where you operate. It means having specialized access to expertise in the intricacies of business risk and resilience to remain constantly aware, updated, and alerted with global intelligence. ​A crucial aspect of due diligence in the planning of international ventures is to develop a comprehensive understanding of possible threats and conflicted issues that may arise through foreign interest, presence in unfamiliar settings, or even inevitable political change. Dyami offers various options for tailored threat intelligence and geopolitical analyses, which are always customized to your needs. >> www.dyami.services >> https://www.dyami.services/risk-threat-assessments

The situation in the Western Balkans is increasingly inching toward a showdown in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) sparked by separatist tendencies in the Serb entity of the country, Republika Srpska. This would most likely drag the rest of the region into a broader confrontation and would also most certainly have implications for the rest of Europe. This report analyses short- and medium-term effects on regional stability in the Balkans.

In November, the 27th Conference of Parties, commonly known as #COP27 will be held in Egypt. Some of our clients will be heading to Sharm el-Sheikh to attend this important conference to discuss the fight against climate change. We are proud to support their teams with their travel security needs. By providing briefings, travel security training and support during the event. Feel free to download some of our advisories: A summary of our Sharm el-Sheikh Travel Threat Advisory >> Essential Egypt travel safety tips >> Let us know if we can help you with your bespoke security-as-a-service subscription! Count on us.

Written by Julius Birch On the 12th of October, the Biden administration released its first National Security Strategy brief, a 48-page document outlining the administration’s assessment of US national security for the 21st century. The People’s Republic of China is identified as a major long-term threat. Another document recently released by the Bureau of Industry and Security details a range of export controls on advanced microelectronics components, intended to hobble China’s capacity for technological advancement and economic growth. The Biden administration has identified China as a tremendous long-term threat to US interests and is willing to pull no punches. However, Joe Biden’s first term is already halfway through. Despite several running criminal investigations, Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted he would run for president again in 2024, and it seems he still has the base to do so. 61% of Republicans would still want him to run if he were criminally charged, according to a recent poll, and according to the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "his core support remains intact regardless of the results of the investigation”. As such, it’s well worth pondering the implications of his re-election for international security. How would the famously erratic and impulsive President Trump conduct his trans-Pacific policy in 2024? Trump’s relations with China during the presidency During the 2016 election cycle, the eventual victor would produce many a controversial soundbite, but none were repeated quite so often as ‘America First’ and ‘China’. Claiming the US had become entangled in a web of foreign alliances and agreements that were not in her interest, Trump promised that, were he to become president, he would reassess America’s international obligations – and if they were not beneficial, withdraw from them without hesitation. He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs that had gone to China. He would, in short, make US interests a priority in their foreign policy once more. Upon becoming president, Trump certainly appeared to make good on his promises, and the China front was no exception. At Trump’s direction, the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a proposed trade agreement to lower mutual trade barriers among a number of countries on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. A trade war was instigated, the Trump administration laying tariffs on the import of Chinese goods, to which China responded in kind. Policies such as these, as well as inflammatory rhetoric, were quite sufficient to satisfy Trump’s followers. However, time revealed the inefficiency, inadequacy, or simply misguided nature of these policies. The TPP had been lauded as a strategic move to “prevent China from writing the rules of the world economy,” increasing economic growth for the US and friendly nations in the Asian-Pacific region. Leaving the Trans-Pacific Partnership – the groundwork for which had been laid during the Obama administration – gave China an opportunity to fill the power vacuum in the region left by the US. In 2019, Forbes claimed that “his tariff-obsessed approach is far too narrow to address the genuine challenges China poses to American hegemony over the coming decades,” while those very same tariffs were causing problems for small American farmers and manufacturers. In short, Trump’s approach did little to truly counter the Chinese challenge and often caused more harm than good. Meanwhile, the 44th president had no words of praise for his successor’s stance toward China. He has claimed Biden is afraid of China because his son, Hunter, is being blackmailed after taking a large amount of money, compelling Biden to craft a China policy that is not as strong as it should be. This is a strange claim for him to make; not only has the Biden administration’s NSS brief clearly marked China as the major long-term geopolitical rival to the US, but Biden also left in place a number of Trump-Era tariffs. The Democrat party, as a whole, has come to generally hold a more hostile view of China during the years of the Trump administration, and as Biden’s first term rolls past the halfway point it has become clear that it has not been soft on China. Trump’s criticism looks more and more like political mud-slinging. Trump’s re-election? So what kind of policy on China could we expect if Trump manages to win a second term? At first glance, it seems like things will go on as usual. Biden’s attitude to China has been no softer than his predecessor’s, and there seems to be little reason to think Trump will have changed his mind. The threat China poses to the United States’ status as a world leader has not gone away in the past four years. In fact, it has only grown. On the other hand, Trump is infamous for his unpredictability. During his term as president, he became infamous for not reading security documents or intelligence briefs, and the National Security Council had been told to “keep policy papers to a single page and include lots of graphics and maps.” His public statements and the 140-character stream of consciousness his Twitter account offered painted an unflattering, unprofessional image of the President as a man with many whims and few filters. It does not seem entirely out of character for him to undo many Biden-era measures taken against China simply because Biden implemented them. The view from across the water Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, it seems that China would be quite pleased with Trump winning a second term. During the 2020 election cycle, numerous articles were published detailing the Chinese view: Trump was claimed to be “easy to read”, and reportedly disinterested in many issues that other Western leaders placed a premium on, such as Hong Kong or the Chinese human rights record. His administration has been criticized for a lack of clear goals or strategy with regard to its Chinese policy. “What Beijing would really fear is a concerted U.S. policy and a coordinated international policy that constrains China.” CNBC wrote in July 2020. Considering Trump’s ‘America First’ policy and apparent eagerness to withdraw from the international sphere, it’s not hard to see why their geopolitical rivals across the Pacific would applaud his re-election. For the USA, a second Trump administration would mean governmental confusion, coupled with a shrinking of international reach and power. For China, it would mean another four years of opportunities, as the eminent global power seeks to decouple from the international system and turn inward under chaotic, disconnected leadership. For America’s allies in Europe and elsewhere, Trump’s re-election would demand firm unity, a strong political will, and a greater capacity for self-defense than they currently possess. About the author: Julius Birch Julius Birch is a student of History at Utrecht University with a wide range of interests within the field of geopolitics and international security. Currently, he is writing his undergraduate thesis, applying modern theory to a historical case study.