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Date: 15/08/2023 Tension in the Middle East is rising with the US deploying an additional 3000 Marines and two warships to secure commercial shipping in the region. Iran has responded by giving its Islamic Republican Guard Corps Navy additional drones and missiles. This might lead to an escalation in the Middle East especially if Israel decides to attack Iran in order to destroy its nuclear programme.

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Date: 03/08/2023 Where: Baghdad, Iraq Who’s involved: Iraq, Denmark, Sweden, Shia protestors, right-wing protestors. What happened? Iraq is currently experiencing unrest following an incident in which an individual burned a copy of the Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm. This provocative act ignited a firestorm of emotions among Shia Iraqis, leading to hundreds of them converging to the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad on 20/07/2023. The compound witnessed a tense standoff as supporters of the prominent Shia leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, occupied its grounds for a span of 15 minutes. Iraq’s foreign minister took action by summoning Sweden’s ambassador to address this delicate matter. The international community has also been on alert about these events in recent months. Responding to a plea from Pakistan, the United Nations Human Rights Council convened an urgent meeting to address the burning of the Quran on 04/07/2023. The situation escalated further when Iraq expelled the Swedish ambassador on 20/07/2023 in the wake of widespread outrage in the country. In response to escalating security concerns, the Swedish embassy in Iraq took a precautionary step by temporarily relocating its operations to Stockholm on 21/07/2023. The streets of Baghdad witnessed further dissent on 22/07/2023 as hundreds attempted to breach the city’s Green Zone. This surge of protesters vehemently rejected the burning of the Quran. The security forces, wanting to maintain order, intervened by blocking access to the Danish embassy. On 24/07/2023, the turmoil intensified as two protesters again set fire to a copy of the Quran, this time outside the Iraqi embassy in Copenhagen. The incident prompted Iraq’s foreign minister to issue a strong plea directed at European Union member states urging them to swiftly reconsider the boundaries of “freedom of expression” and the “right to demonstrate.” Iraq implored these nations to reflect on the delicate balance between free speech and respect for religious sensitivities. Sweden and Denmark are still in the process of investigating if their laws on freedom of speech can be changed on the basis of public safety and the international safety of citizens and Swedish and Danish interests. Analysis: It is highly likely that the Iraqi demonstrations will intensify in response to the recent Quran burnings. The repercussions of this event are also expected to resonate in Sweden and Denmark, leading to more similar acts. Consequently, heightened turmoil and increased instability are anticipated in both these countries, with Iraq facing particular vulnerabilities due to its unstable political and economic conditions. The impact of these recent developments has been keenly felt by the Iraqi population. Another burning of religious texts could potentially lead to an escalation, making a terrorist act more likely and resulting in significant harm and casualties. The terrorist threat is particularly high in countries such as Sweden and Denmark. Conclusion: The situation in Iraq and in Europe is most likely going to escalate, especially with this type of incident happening repeatedly. If Iraqi and Swedish authorities’ actions will not lead to a resolution of the tensions, there is a chance that radicalized militants might plan attacks against Danish and Swedish targets. However, the United Nations organizing an urgent meeting sends a significant message to the international community.

Executive Summary The incidents from the last few months show the importance of keeping up-to-date with the recurring and emerging security threats to the business aviation sector in Europe and the wider world. The need for timely analysis and accurate information regarding new threats is a necessity to plan ahead and take precautionary measures. There are several new threats which pose potential risks for business aviation around the world. In Europe, climate protests have targeted runways and damaged aircraft in Germany. The risk of climate protests pose particular problems for the business aviation sector as they are explicitly the target. Commercial and private aircraft have experienced significant delays because of a sharp increase in hoax bomb threats. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Business model jets have been and continue to be used for drug/contraband smuggling across the globe. These flights are usually to and from Latin America, Ethiopia and India. The aim of using business jets instead of commercial aviation is to lower the chance of getting caught, and increase the volume per flight. 1.2. Human trafficking In order to improve the ease of human trafficking, and to stay away from prying eyes of airport security as well as cabin crew, traffickers prefer to use business jets if they can. This problem is a worldwide ordeal which is hard to combat. 1.3. Valuables trafficking Ethiopia and India have become hubs for trafficking of valuables, such as wildlife and gold. While the majority of the detected smuggling was on commercial flights, there has been an increase in (attempts to) smuggle with business jets and via smaller regional airports. Europe 2.1. Strikes Over the last few months, air traffic controllers and airport employees have gone on strikes to protest wages and/or working conditions. Some of the French strikes impacted the entire airspace of France, while others resulted in delays and in some cases in airports becoming non-operational. 2.2. Climate activism The last two months have seen continued climate protests throughout Europe targeting airports and business aviation. In some cases, aircraft were deliberately damaged by activists. There have been calls for increased security but protests targeting airports and especially business aviation are likely to continue in the coming months. 2.3. Ban on domestic flights The Belgian minister of transport has pushed for a ban for domestic flights in Belgium. Seventyone percent of these flights are done by business jets and government, training, maintenance and other exceptional flights will be exempt from the ban. Middle East 3.1. Protests In Israel, large protests disrupted the traffic around Ben Gurion International Airport [LLBG] and caused several delays. More protests can be expected in the coming weeks. 3.2. Increased military presence Above the Strait of Hormuz, there is a significant increase in military presence to deter Iran from seizing vessels in the area. The increased tensions and military activities are expected to remain in the coming weeks. 3.3. Overflight Risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. Asia 4.1. New Zealand pilot hostage Papua On February 7, independence fighters from West-Papuan independence fighters took a New Zealand pilot hostage to demand independence from Indonesia. On the 31th of May, a video message appeared in which the pilot said that if demands are not met within two months, he will be executed. Since then, several rescue attempts failed, resulting in casualties on both sides, and the demands of the hostage takers were lowered. On July 20, 2023, an Indonesian official said that negotiation attempts are still ongoing. 4.2. Regional instability Political instability has led to recurring protests and (armed) attacks, particularly in northern India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the border region of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Instabilities in some countries prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. This ranges from minimum flight levels to security threats on the ground. 4.3. Hoax bomb threats In India, there has been an increase in fake bomb threats to airplanes and airports. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, the fake calls disrupt airport operations and can result in significant delays and searches on business jets. 4.4. Airport attacks In Indonesia’s Papua province, armed groups have continued to target airports and low flying aircraft. Both military and civilian airplanes were shot while flying at low altitudes near airports in eastern Indonesia. Africa 5.1. Overflight risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. 5.2. Illicit trafficking Addis Ababa Bole International Airport [HAAB] has become a trafficking hub for wildlife and narcotics. The Ethiopian Customs commission stated that it is struggling with the growing sophistication and capacity of smugglers, which is a notable pattern throughout the region. North America 6.1. Trafficking Over the last two months, cartels and other criminal organizations have continued to use private aircraft to smuggle narcotics and for human trafficking. The lack of security for private flights, especially at smaller regional airports, makes it easier for traffickers. 6.2. Protests Protestors have disrupted flight operations at several airports in Mexico, the United States and Canada. While not always specifically targeted at aviation, airports are becoming an increasingly used site for protests. South America 7.1. Trafficking Cartels continue to use private aircraft for drug trafficking throughout the continent. The criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights. 7.2. Venezuela overflight ban canceled In June 2023, the FAA canceled a four-year long ban on overflights of Venezuela below flight level 260. While no countries have active restrictions, overflight remains risky because of risks of misidentification and the security threats on the ground. Oceania 8.1. Protests against aviation There have been several protests against aviation, and especially business jets, in Australia and New Zealand. The crowds protested both noise and climate concerns but did not cause any significant disruptions to airport operations during the protests. 8.2. Emergency response concerns Airport-based firefighters in Australia have raised concerns about a draft restructuring of the service. Strikes which can impact airport operations are expected in the coming weeks, especially at regional airports. Forecast The threats to the business aviation sector in June 2023 and July 2023 are likely to pose continuing threats in the coming months. Steps are being taken to increase security at European airports, but climate protestors are likely to continue targeting airports and especially business aviation. In Mexico, non-aviation protests have targeted airports as well and received considerable media coverage. As a result, more protests at airports are expected in the coming months. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, there is an increase in hoax bomb threats in India. In Africa, Asia and South America, there continues to be widespread instability and the use of aviation for trafficking and drug trafficking. The identified security risks are likely to pose threats for the foreseeable future. Recognizing the potential risks and creating scenarios are vital for security for the business aviation sector. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Drug trafficking is still a present risk for business aviation. For organized crime groups and cartels, business aviation is often the preferred method of transportation. There are numerous cases of drugs, or other valuable goods such as wildlife and gold, trafficking by cabin and flight crew on commercial flights. It is possible that cabin or flight crew on private jets could smuggle illegal goods too, emphasizing the need to be vigilant. Throughout Latin America, cartels have continued to use business jets to smuggle large amounts of narcotics over long distances. These jets are often acquired in the United States and then destroyed after a single or very few flights to avoid detection. It is important to clearly identify when asked to minimize the risk of misidentification by law enforcement and/or the military. 1.2. Human trafficking With human trafficking still being a major issue to this day, the involvement of business aircraft is to be expected. In commercial aviation steps have been made and are still being made to improve the awareness and the prevention of human trafficking. While most of these measures have generally been effective for commercial aviation, it could push human traffickers into finding other solutions. One of these solutions for human traffickers is business/private aviation. If a trafficking organization can overcome the increased costs of using business aviation, it allows for flights to smaller airports with less experienced and limited security compared to larger commercial airports. Additionally, it is easier to bribe or blackmail security personnel to turn a blind eye to human trafficking, especially in unstable countries or regions. Europe 2.1. Strikes Over the last two months, air traffic controllers and airport employees have gone on strikes to protest wages and/or working conditions. Especially in France, these strikes have disrupted the entire airspace of the country multiple times, while others resulted in significant delays and airport closures. More strikes can be expected in the coming months. 2.2. Climate activism The last two months have seen continued climate protests throughout Europe targeting airports and business aviation. In Germany, private aircraft were deliberately damaged with (spray)paint during these protests. Other actions include blocking taxi and runways and protests on tarmac where the private aircraft are parked. There have been calls for increased security at the targeted airports but protests targeting airports, and especially business aviation, are likely to continue in the coming months. 2.3. Ban on domestic flights The Belgian minister of transport has pushed for a ban for domestic flights in Belgium. Seventyone percent of these flights are done by business jets. There will be exceptions for government, training, maintenance and other atypical flights. Other countries are considering similar bans, but Belgium appears to be leading in this effort. 2.4. Drug trafficking On June 24, a ‘’small private plane’’ was intercepted by a French Rafale fighter jet after flying in restricted airspace. During the escort, the pilot dropped several packages of narcotics and threatened airport employees upon landing. The pilot was later arrested. Middle East 3.1. Protests In Israel, large protests disrupted the traffic around Ben Gurion International Airport [LLBG] and caused several delays. More protests can be expected in the coming weeks. There have also been large protests in Baghdad, but these protests targeted Western embassies and disruptions around the airport were minimal. 3.2. Increased military presence There is a significant increase in military presence above the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran from seizing vessels in the area. The increased tensions and military activities are expected to remain in the coming weeks. Avoid flying over the Strait of Hormuz and clearly identify when asked to minimize the risk of misidentification. 3.3. Overflight Risks Developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures. These include an advised minimum flight level of 320 over Iraq, with a focus on northern Iraq. Additionally, GPS interference is to be expected when overflying the country as well as Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The airspace above Iran, Afghanistan (except for P500/G500), Yemen and Syria is still unsafe for Western aviation. Overflying Saudi Arabia is safe, as long as flying above FL260. Asia 4.1. Pilot held hostage in West Papua (Indonesia) The pilot taken hostage in West Papua to demand independence is still being held by his captors. Since the capture on February 7, the hostage takers have freed the passengers and lowered demands. Negotiations have stranded numerous times and several rescue attempts failed, resulting in casualties on both sides. The indepence fighters have threatened to kill the pilot if demands, which are not publicly known, are not met and have published several videos of the pilot in captivity. On July 20, a senior official of the Indonesian military said that negotiation attempts are still ongoing and that the pilot is alive and healthy. 4.2. Regional instability Political instability has led to recurring protests and (armed) attacks, particularly in northern India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the border region of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Instabilities prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. The instability in northern India poses a serious risk to aircraft on the ground, while the unrest in Pakistan and Myanmar introduce threats to overflight as well. As a result of proliferation of anti-air weapons, a minimum flight level of 300 AGL is advised. The tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have resulted in armed conflict without warning numerous times. Since both countries operate advanced air defense systems, overflying the border region should be avoided. 4.3. Fake bomb threats In India, there has been an increase in fake bomb threats to airplanes and airports. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, the fake calls disrupt airport operations and can result in significant delays and searches on business jets. 4.4. Airport attacks In Indonesia’s Papua province, armed groups have continued to target airports and low flying aircraft. On July 18, armed assailants shot at a civilian plane carrying military personnel at Pogapa Airport. It is unclear whether the assailants knew military personnel was onboard, but armed groups have targeted civilian aircraft in the past. It is expected that these attacks will continue in the coming months. Africa 5.1. Overflight risks Overflying Africa has risks, which differ per country. Libya and Sudan are the only countries with a do not fly advisory while most other countries can be overflown by sticking to a security advisory. Egypt: advice to fly above flight level 300 over the Sinai region due to terrorist organizations in possession of anti-air weapons Ethiopia: the Tigray region remains unstable even though an official peace deal was signed in November. The advice is to avoid overflying the region because of the presence of anti-air systems. Somalia: advisory to not overfly the country below flight level 300 because of the instability in the country in combination with the presence of anti-air systems. Kenya: the border region has an overspill effect of the civil war in Somalia, thus posing the same threat as in Somalia itself. The advisory is to not fly below flight level 300. Mali: militants are in possession of anti-air systems and thus the advice is to not fly below flight level 300 over the country. Niger: as a result of the political instability, the advice is to avoid flying over Niger Western Sahara: due to the conflict in the region between Morocco and the independence movement in the region, there is a risk of proliferation of anti-air weapons. The advice is to stick to a flight level of 250 AGL or more. 5.2. Political instability Political instability has resulted in unpredictable protests and revolts throughout Africa. The political violence in Sudan and Niger has led to serious security risks for aircraft on the ground and overflights. It is important to stay up-to-date with the latest developments to minimize the risk of getting caught in armed violence while staying in a vulnerable African country or region. 5.3. Illicit trafficking Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa Bole International Airport [HAAB] has become a trafficking hub for wildlife and narcotics. The Ethiopian Customs commission stated that it is struggling with the growing sophistication and capacity of smugglers, which is a notable pattern throughout the region. North America 6.1. Trafficking Over the last two months, cartels and other criminal organizations have continued to use private aircraft to smuggle narcotics and for human trafficking. These organizations regularly use private flights to and from smaller regional airports in the south of the United States because of limited security. Airport personnel and/or the flight crew can be coerced or bribed into aiding the traffickers to further ease the smuggling. 6.2. Protests On June 15, a two-day long protest at Culiacán International Airport [MMCL] in Mexico ended. A group of farmers protested low prices for the crops by preventing aircraft from landing or taking off from the airport. While the protestors left the airport after talks, the significant media attention might be a motivation to protest at Mexican airports more frequently. Other non-aviation related protests and strikes by airport employees caused disruptions throughout the United States and Canada. South America 7.1. Trafficking Cartels continue to use private aircraft, ranging from smaller Cessna to business jets, for drug trafficking throughout the continent. The criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights. 7.2. Venezuela overflight ban canceled In June 2023, the FAA canceled a four-year long ban on overflights of Venezuela below flight level 260. While no countries have active restrictions, overflight remains risky because of risks of misidentification and the security threats on the ground. Oceania 8.1. Protests against aviation There have been several protests against aviation, and especially business jets, in Australia and New Zealand. Hundreds of people protested both noise and climate concerns at various airports throughout Australia and New Zealand. The crowds did not cause any significant disruptions to airport operations during the protests, but more protests are expected in the coming months. 8.2. Emergency response concerns Airport-based firefighters in Australia have raised concerns about a draft to restructure the service. If implemented, airport-based firefighters are not allowed to respond to incidents outside the airport and would see fewer to no emergency response personnel stationed at regional airports. The firefighters’ union threatened with strikes which could impact airport operations in the near future, especially at smaller regional airports.

Title: Intelligence/Research Analyst Internship. Who are we? In a world with growing risks, organizations need different solutions when it comes to their corporate social responsibility, both at home and abroad. Dyami —which is a full-service strategic security provider— lives by its mission statement of enabling you to thrive; safely and successfully. To do this, our team provides strategic outlooks and geopolitical analyses, security risk & threat intelligence management reports, travel security advice, aviation services, and diverse types of training. At dyami, you will be working alongside a team of analysts and security experts with backgrounds in the private, public, and non-profit sectors. Job Description: The intern will work within the intelligence unit at dyami and report to the Lead Analyst. Your responsibilities and taskings will include: Following and analyzing current and emerging local, regional, and international security trends. Contribute to research, identifying security-related issues in volatile environments and conflict regions. Helping with security risk assessment for stakeholders. Contribute to Dyami’s intelligence cycle. Assists in the day-to-day operations of a start-up company. Who are we looking for? Ability to critically analyze qualitative information, eagerness to learn and to be a team player. You have good organizational and communication skills, including writing clearly and concisely. You preferably are enrolled/have recently graduated from a master in security studies, conflict studies, international relations, intelligence/crisis management, journalism, or any related field. Excellent command of English, both spoken and written. Fluency in any additional languages is a strong plus. A flexible attitude is essential, as Dyami B.V. is a young and rapidly growing company. You also must possess an international mindset; intercultural sensitivity is important. Please note: you have to be located in the Netherlands and able to reach our office in Utrecht. What we offer: Practical learning opportunities to apply analytical capabilities to real-world situations. An opportunity to develop professional analytical writing skills. Substantial feedback on your work by a variety of experts. Exposure to intelligence and security and risk management research methodologies. Exposure as an analyst on our website, social media, and through the extensive network of our team. The opportunity to work in a young and growing company. Internship allowance: This internship offers €350.00 gross a month for a 36-hour work week. Interested? If you are interested in applying for this position at dyami, please send the following documents: A CV; A brief cover letter that mentions your main topic(s) of interest (max one page and can be attached as email text); One writing sample of around 2 pages, preferably about a specific country, conflict, or current geopolitical situation. This can be an extract of previous (academic) work. Please send your application to: dewis@dyami.services, with the topic “Application Intelligence/Research Analyst internship. (YOUR NAME)” before July 30, 2023. This internship follows conventional 09:00-17:00 work hours, Monday through Friday. The start date is in September 2023 and is expected to end in January 2024. We're looking forward to meeting you!

Date: 14/07/2023 Who’s involved: Hezbollah, Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps), Syria’s president Assad, the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), Lebanese government. What happened? Hezbollah, a Shi'ite terrorist organization operating from Lebanon and sponsored by Iran and Syria, has been actively seeking to increase its influence in Lebanon and the broader region. Hezbollah holds considerable influence over Lebanon's political system. Without a president since October 2022, Hezbollah has obstructed parliament’s attempts to elect a president by casting blank ballots in parliamentary sessions. Hezbollah has placed two tents and ten men on Israeli controlled soil in the North of Israel. The IDF has not yet responded to the incursion and there is a discussion on whether or not to bomb the tents or just leave them be, since they pose no threat to anyone. The leader of Hezbollah announced on 12/07/2023 that Israel risks an all out war if it attacks the tents. Beirut international airport seems to be coming more and more under control of Hezbollah. They have plans to build a second terminal that will function as a hub for Hezbollah related transport of drugs and weapons. Drug smuggling is the main income of Hezbollah next to its financing by Iran. Weapons coming in from Iran also have to come through Beirut airport. According to estimates done by the IDF, Hezbollah has upscaled its capacity of being able to fire rockets and missiles at Israel. The capacity has gone from 90 rockets per day to up to 4000 rockets per day. Hezbollah has given Palestinian terrorist groups approval to fire rockets at Israel from Lebanese territory. This is a significant change in policy from Hezbollah. In May 2023 Hezbollah organized an event in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon where they showed off their military skills, weapons and training to the international press. Hezbollah spokespersons then emphasized that they were ready for war with Israel. During the recent protests in Iran, after the killing of a woman by the religious police Hezbollah has been volunteering soldiers to help put down the protests. These soldiers are known for their brutal attacks and violence against protestors. Analysis: It is likely that Hezbollah will get a greater grip on Lebanon if it manages to get a president-elect that is loyal to the organization. There have been 12 votes on electing a president since elections in 2022, but no candidate has had the majority support from parliament, which is divided across sectarian lines, with Hezbollah being one of the bigger, if not the biggest, players in the system. If the IDF decides to attack the two tents that have been placed by Hezbollah on Israeli territory it is reasonable to assume that Hezbollah will retaliate by firing rockets at the North of Israel in a bid to start a war with the country. This will lead to an extensive military operation from the IDF into the South of Lebanon, which in turn will lead to large numbers of casualties on both sides, including many civilian deaths. If the IDF chooses not to attack or remove the two Hezbollah tents there is a chance that Hezbollah will send in more troops into Israeli territory in order to provoke a military incident. With Hezbollah taking control over Beirut International Airport it is likely that its drug smuggling operation will develop into a bigger operation and will then be an even bigger source of financing and make Hezbollah less dependent on money coming from Iran and Syria. But there does not seem to be a reason for Hezbollah to be more independent since the organization seems quite content with its connections to Iran and Syria. The IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps) will be able to deliver more weapons to Hezbollah if the organization takes more control over Beirut International Airport. Flights from Iran to Lebanon are already quite frequent but with its own terminal at the airport Hezbollah will be even more blatant about the weapons coming in from Iran. If Israel gets into some form of conflict with Iran, maybe over the possible manufacturing of a nuclear bomb, Hezbollah will form a front in the North from where it will attack Israel on Iran’s behalf. With Syria’s president Assad being reintroduced into the Arab League recently there is a chance that Hezbollah will open more bases in Syria in order to help Assad with putting down the rebellion in the country. There will be no backlash coming from other Arab countries if Syria intensifies its repression of rebel forces. This will give Hezbollah a bigger footprint in the region and it could use Syria as an Eastern front if it wants to attack Israel. Conclusion: It seems that Hezbollah is trying to regain its status as a major player in the region. Hezbollah is putting pressure on Lebanon’s domestic politics to extend its influence in the country. Externally Hezbollah is putting pressure on Israel by illegally placing militants inside Israel’s borders and calling for a war if the IDF does something about it. With Syria back in the fold of the Arab League, Hezbollah has more space to assert itself since it does not have to fear a backlash from other Arab countries. With the backing of Assad and the IRGC Hezbollah feels it can challenge Israel and any other adversaries in the region. Hezbollah’s drug and weapon smuggling operation will be expanded by creating its own terminal at Beirut International Airport. This will probably mean a spike in finances coming in for the terrorist group that has traditionally had ties with, for instance, the Irish Mafia. The coming weeks will make clear whether or not Hezbollah, or Israel, is ready for a physical confrontation instead of just a propaganda war.

Written by Alessia Cappelletti, Jacob Dickinson, Kevin Heller, Marnix van 't Hoff Russia: Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin leads an armed mutiny. Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine starts the counter-offensive amid concerns about the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia and deadly Russian air strikes. Sudan: Fighting in Sudan continues, leading to more humanitarian concerns and crimes against humanity allegations. France: Riots erupt after a police officer shot and killed 17-year-old Nahel M. Israel-Palestine: Attacks from both sides continue while Netanyahu pushes the Reform Bill forward. Vietnam-China: Tensions rise as Chinese traffic, frequency, and length of incursions in Vietnam’s EEZ increase. Honduras: A deadly riot in a women’s prison led to a military crackdown on prisoners around the country. Burkina Faso: Reports of war crimes are published while the situation deteriorates. Serbia-Kosovo: Tensions escalate and Serbian authorities arrest three Kosovar police officers. Myanmar: The conflict continues, the humanitarian situation deteriorates, and Thailand meets with junta generals. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Peace talks continue despite attacks. Conflicts, June 2023 1. Russia Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led an armed mutiny against the Russian military on 23-24 June 2023. Putin called it a ‘stab in the back’ for Russia and called anyone participating in operations a traitor. This posed the most serious challenge to Putin’s regime since the war against Ukraine began in February 2022. For less than 24 hours, Wagner troops took over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and moved north toward Moscow, reaching approximately 200 kilometers from the capital. Roads leading to the capital were barricaded and destroyed by Russian troops, and Moscow was put on high alert. However, around 20:00, Belarussian President Lukashenko announced that he brokered a deal between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group, which led Prigozhin and all of his fighters to return to base and vacate Rostov-on-Don. Since then, the movements of Prigozhin have been unclear, although the agreement stipulated that he would go into exile in Belarus. Prigozhin had been arguing for weeks that the Russian war in Ukraine was being badly fought, accusing Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu of starving Wagner troops of ammunition. In early 2023, Wagner was barred from recruiting more prisoners, and on June 10, 2023, Shoigu announced that Wagner soldiers would have to sign contracts with his ministry – essentially ceasing to exist as a separate group. As a result of the mutiny and the subsequent Belarussian-brokered deal, no charges against Prigozhin and his followers were pressed, but few details have been released. The Wagner soldiers who didn’t participate in the mutiny can now sign contracts with the Defense Ministry or retire. The fate of the Wagner Group and that of their operations abroad remain unclear, and doubts about Putin’s internal grip on power arose. The upcoming months will be crucial to determine in which direction Russian foreign policy, the war in Ukraine, and the country’s stability will head. 2. Russia-Ukraine Ukraine started the well-awaited counter-offensive in June and quickly regained small pieces of territory. The Russian army claims, however, that the counter-offensive is a failure and that Ukraine lost a large number of tanks and heavy infantry vehicles of Western manufacture. For the moment, it seems that the Ukrainian army will be facing resistance from Russian defensive lines until they find a breakthrough point. Throughout the month, Ukrainian cities were bombarded with Russian drones and missiles, killing large numbers of civilians, including one deadly strike on a food court in Kramatorsk on June 27 that killed 16 people and injured 91. The Ukrainian government claimed later that Russia had plans to damage or destroy the nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhia by July 5, but Russia denied any such plans. While the Wagner Group started a violent insurrection in Russia that turned international attention away from the conflict, this was too brief for the Ukrainian Army to take advantage of in the battleground. The implications of the Wagner rebellion for the future of the Ukrainian counter-offensive are not yet known. 3. Sudan The conflict in Sudan has intensified over the past month as neither the Rapid Support Force (RSF) nor the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) gained ground since the beginning of the conflict in April 2023. Intense fighting has taken place in Khartoum with heavy artillery and air strikes as both sides vie for control of the city. The western region of Darfur has also seen heavy fighting, with reports of civilians targeted for their ethnicity by the RSF and other Arab militia. The United Nations has spoken of ‘crimes against humanity’ in the region, where the conflict has taken an ethnic dimension. The death count is reported to have reached 3,000 civilians, with 2.2 million refugees displaced to neighboring countries. Ceasefires negotiated between the RSF and the SAF and the US and Saudi Arabian governments have failed to hold for longer than two days, with repeated violations reported. Egypt has tightened restrictions on refugees fleeing the conflict. Alerts and developing situations, June 2023 1. France On 27 June, a police officer shot and killed 17-year-old Nahel M, starting riots across the country with French police accused of racial discrimination. Rioters resorted to looting public buildings, stole lethal weapons from police stations, and attacked public buildings, including a mayor’s home. Thousands of police were deployed across France to quell the riots, with hundreds of arrests as a result. The police officer who shot and killed Nahel M. was charged with homicide at the end of June, but this did not stop the riots. French President Macron suggested that the intense periods of the riots have passed. However, fears of further riots have led to bans on the sale of fireworks and an additional 45,000 police deployed on the streets on Bastille Day, 14 July. 2. Israel-Palestine The conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians saw a surge in smaller but significant incidents. There were several Palestinian terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians and soldiers, while Israeli ultra-nationalist settlers attacked Palestinian homes and cars and injured over 145 people, and the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) made several incursions into Palestinian areas killing and capturing Palestinian militants and civilians. In the same month, prime minister Netanyahu pushed the Reform Bill forward. The Reform Bill is highly contested by a large part of the Israeli population and has led to massive protests and strikes. In a bid to please the right-wing parties that support the government, there has been little to no crackdown on the ultra-nationalist, orthodox, and settler civilians attacking Israeli-Arabs and Palestinians. However, there has been a surge of violence from the police and the IDF towards Palestinian militants and civilians inside Palestinian territories. 3. Vietnam-China In June, China sent more patrol and naval vessels into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in the disputed area of South China Sea, raising tensions between the countries. A Chinese coast guard ship stayed and observed Vietnam’s oil and gas projects in the EEZ in an attempt to normalize China’s claims over Vietnam. Hanoi rejects China’s assertion of the “nine-dash line,” describing it as a violation of its sovereignty and its economic interests. According to the nine-dash map demarcation, China claims sovereignty over 80% of the South China Sea. The recent clashes demonstrate China’s militarization of the South China Sea and power projection against other claimants such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam. With China’s actions increasingly pulling the US closer to the Southeast Asian claimant states, the intensification disputes over the South China Sea are set to continue. 4. Honduras On June 20, the deadliest riot in a women’s prison in Honduras erupted, in which 46 women lost their lives. Two rival gangs, the Barrio 18 and MS-13, have been fighting for control over Honduras’ prisons for years, resulting in dozens of deaths. During the riot, gang members attacked each other with machetes, guns, knives, and flammable liquid, setting people on fire. President Castro quickly reinstalled military oversight, despite her attempt to demilitarize the prison system one month before the riots. The Honduran Armed Forces announced on June 26 the beginning of an operation to ‘regain control of the prisons.’ This military operation reflects the way neighboring country El Salvador deals with gang violence in its prison system. Human rights groups have denounced both countries' hard lines on crime and ineffective (and at times inhumane) prison systems. Honduras declared a state of emergency in December 2022 in an attempt to curb long-standing issues with gang violence in the country. 5. Burkina Faso At the end of June 2023, Human Rights Watch published an additional report documenting the human rights abuses, unlawful killings, and disappearances perpetrated by the Burkinabe Army since February. Since 2016, Burkina Faso has been struggling with jihadist insurgencies linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, which crossed from Mali. To cope with the violence, the government announced a general mobilization to give the state ‘all necessary means’ to combat the terrorist threat and recapture the territory lost to the insurgents. These would include ‘all actions’ and a state of emergency in which the president would have the power to restrict civil liberties. In this framework, innocent civilians are often targets of armed forces’ raids and violence, which constitute a war crime under international humanitarian law. Follow-ups on previous conflict monitoring reports 1. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have escalated significantly in the last month, continuing the frictions of May 2023. Following boycotted elections in the north of Kosovo, riots broke out involving Serbs living in Kosovo, police officers, and NATO peacekeepers. On 14 June, Serbian authorities arrested three Kosovar police officers claiming they were attempting to infiltrate the country. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić put the military on high alert and moved troops to the border with Kosovo in response. The tit-for-tat events and heightened rhetoric suggest that the conflict is likely to escalate in the future. 2. Myanmar The conflict in Myanmar remained highly volatile in June, with disparate pro-democracy opposition groups resisting the junta’s attempts to control the country. The junta’s latest offensive took place in the North-West of the country with the use of Russian-supplied advanced fighting jets striking villages. Human rights abuses are widespread as the military continues to bomb villages suspected of holding resistance groups. The humanitarian situation worsened as Cyclone Mocha tore through the country in May, destroying houses and displacing an estimated 100,000 people. Responses to the disaster were carried out amid the conflict, with relief efforts facing significant hurdles. At the regional level, Thailand drew criticism from other ASEAN states for meeting with junta generals in an attempt to bring the Myanmar junta back to the ASEAN fold. With no consensus among ASEAN member states on the conflict, Myanmar’s instability looks set to continue over the coming months. More information about the civil war in Myanmar can be found in Dyami’s previous conflict monitoring report. 3. Armenia-Azerbaijan As mentioned in Dyami’s previous conflict monitoring report, the opening of a checkpoint by Azerbaijan on the Lachin corridor in April sparked violent clashes and protests between the countries. Peace talks between the countries are ongoing but continue to be undermined by routinely occurring skirmishes. On June 28, four Armenian servicemen were killed after Azerbaijan carried out strikes along the Nagorno-Karabakh border. The day before, Azerbaijan stated one of its troops had been shot, but Karabakh Armenian denied the accusation. On June 27, US Secretary Anthony Blinken announced the start of another round of negotiations. During previous talks, Armenia declared for the first time its willingness to recognize Baku’s sovereignty in Nagorno-Karabakh. The talks still stalled on the fate of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani rule, as Baku rejected international guarantees proposals. Since June, the situation has not improved. About the authors Alessia Cappelletti Alessia is Lead Analyst at Dyami, where she researches and analyzes security threats at both operational and geopolitical levels. She has field experience in South America, Colombia especially, and has experience in researching organized crime and conflicts. Her academic background includes conflict analysis, international humanitarian law, and criminology. Jacob Dickinson Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has traveled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes the geopolitics of oil and industrial upgrading in the electronics global value chain. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security. Kevin Heller Kevin has over a decade of experience in the world of counter-terrorism as a consultant, trainer, and analyst. His background is in military Close Quarter Battle/Combat and Krav Maga for Military and Law Enforcement agencies. As a Global Intelligence Analyst, he writes Intel Briefs on conflict zones and terrorism. He has extensive knowledge of conflicts, politics, and other events happening in the Middle East. Kevin also has a background in Journalism and International Affairs/Conflict Studies. Marnix van ‘t Hoff Marnix Van 't Hoff is an experienced Aviation Security Consultant with a background in Aviation Studies from the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences. He has a background in aviation security and has worked as a security risk and threat assessments (SRTA) specialist for aviation clients. He is an experienced crisis team leader and a HEAT trainer.

Date: 19/05/2023 Location: Pakistan Parties involved: the Pakistani Military, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Party, Imran Khan, Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani Government, the Anti-Corruption Office. The Events: On 09/05/2023 former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was arrested by Pakistani paramilitary units over corruption charges while leaving court. Key figures from his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), were also arrested on 10/05/2023. Khan was subsequently released on 11/05/2023 after Pakistan’s Supreme Court deemed his arrest as unlawful but there are speculations another arrest may be attempted. Pakistan has been in a long-running political crisis since Khan was removed from power as Prime Minister in May 2022, which he labeled as a ‘coup’. This prompted months of protests against the Pakistani coalition government led by Shebhaz Sharif. Khan has criticized the Pakistani military as a corrupt and authoritarian force, and hailed his movement as the true expression of Pakistan’s democracy. Polls have confirmed that Khan is the most popular politician in the country. Consequently, he has been demanding that early elections be held for months, but the government has vehemently resisted calling any election until October 2023. On 03/11/2022, Khan survived an assassination attempt in Wazirabad, Punjab. This intensified his verbal attacks on the Pakistani government and the military. Pakistani law enforcement agencies also attempted to arrest Khan in March 2023 but his supporters fought off the local police. Khan eventually turned himself in to deal with a separate court case. Mass unrest has erupted across the country with protestors storming the Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi and looting the Punjab Army Corps commander’s house in Lahore on the night of 09/05/2023. Violent clashes between protesters and state authorities have resulted in 10 deaths and 1,400 arrests so far. The military has been called in to restore order across the provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the city of Islamabad, with the Prime Minister, Shebhaz Sharif, stating that demonstrators “will be given an exemplary punishment.” Analysis: The arrest of former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has caused an escalation in the political crisis facing Pakistan. Khan’s ongoing popularity has become a threat to the incumbent Pakistani government, thus prompting the Pakistani military to decisively intervene in order to remove him and consolidate the government’s power. However, the incumbent government is now confronting an existential crisis. The current unrest shows a public who has lost faith in its government and perceives it as a corrupt authoritarian regime, further, the court decision in favor of Khan further delegitimates the government’s tactics and forces them into a corner: either ignore the court and escalate the crisis, or back down and lose whatever remains of their legitimacy. With the military having been deployed directly against the protestors, it is very likely that violence in the country will escalate. There is a possibility that there may be further loss of life due to the high chances that the military may fire onto protestors and engage in direct violent clashes on the streets. If the security situation deteriorates further, we may see the imposition of a state of emergency in Pakistan and even direct military rule. Civil-military relations are fraught with contention in Pakistan as the military holds substantial, if not dominant, political power in the decision-making process. The civilian government rests only on the legitimacy of the military, and so their domestic authority is wholly dependent on keeping the military content. Most worryingly from the perspective of Pakistani security, the military itself is losing legitimacy in the eyes of the Pakistani people with their arrest of Khan. With how integrated the military is to the conception of Pakistani statehood, and how overwhelmingly dominant it is to the country’s politics, it serves as a massive destabilizing point. With the freeing of Khan, it is unlikely the military will accept the decision amid their wider repression against the PTI. At the moment, the ongoing political instability holds consequences for the response to the country’s crises and the security of the wider region. Pakistan is still reeling from the floods in October 2022, made worse by climate change, which submerged a third of the country underwater and pushed the country further to the brink of an economic crisis. There are fears that political instability in Pakistan could reverse the ceasefire on the border with India. India fired rockets into Pakistan in 2019 after an attack by Pakistan-based militants against the Indian army in Kashmir. For two nuclear-armed rival states, the lack of control could escalate political tensions between the two countries. It is unlikely that the crisis will de-escalate without snap elections being called, however this constitutes a very delicate political situation. Whilst both sides agree that elections should be held in the near future, neither side trusts that the other will abide by fair democratic practices. Therefore, any election result would be highly contested because of the high chances of vote-rigging by the military, which calls into question the overall legitimacy of the Pakistani political system itself after its most recent democratization in 2008. The situation is setting Pakistani institutions against one another, with the political establishment and military against Khan and, seemingly, the judiciary, creating an unsustainable situation. Concluding Remarks: The Pakistani political crisis has a risk of escalation after the arrest, and reluctant release, of Imran Khan. The threat of the situation descending into large-scale violence and politicized violence, and even possible civil war, is extremely pronounced, with dim prospects for a peaceful de-escalation. The scale of the crisis is unprecedented in Pakistan, and on top of a debilitating economic crisis, the security situation is at risk of a breakdown.

Executive Summary The incidents from the last few months show the importance of keeping up-to-date with the recurring and emerging security threats to the business aviation sector in Europe and the wider world. The need for timely analysis and accurate information regarding new threats is a necessity to plan ahead and take precautionary measures. There are several new threats which pose potential risks for business aviation around the world. In Europe, climate protests have targeted runways and breached security checkpoints in the Netherlands. The risk of climate protests pose particular problems for the business aviation sector as they are explicitly the target. Commercial and private drone use near airports, have posed difficulties for business aviation which are unable to land or have faced delays. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Business model jets have been and continue to be used for drug/contraband smuggling across the globe. These flights are usually to and from Latin America. The aim of using business jets instead of commercial aviation is to lower the chance of getting caught, and up the volume taken per flight. 1.2. Human trafficking In order to improve the ease of human trafficking, and to stay away from prying eyes of airport security as well as cabin crew, traffickers prefer to use business jets if they can. This problem is a worldwide ordeal which is hard to combat. Europe 2.1. Private jet ban Schiphol Airport On the 4th of April, Schiphol Airport announced a proposal for a private jet ban at the airport. Under the new proposal, the ban will come into effect no later than 2025-2026 and private jets will no longer be welcome at Schiphol Airport. 2.2. “Suspected drone” cause disruption at London Gatwick Airport On the 14th of May, operations were suspended at London Gatwick Airport after a suspected drone was seen close to the airfield. 2.3. Letzte Generation spray paint on small aircraft On 5 May climate activists from Letzte Generation Germany sprayed orange paint on a privately owned Piper PA-23-250 at Berlin Brandenburg Airport. Airport security was present during the action. 2.4. Extinction Rebellion disruption at EBACE On 23 May, dozens of climate activists from different associations disrupted Europe’s largest private jet trade fair “EBACE” at Geneva Airport. The climate activists chained themselves to the private aircraft to protest against the sector’s carbon emissions. Middle East 3.1. Security breach Ben Gurion Airport A State Auditor Report points to security breaches at Tel-Aviv Ben-Gurion Airport. The security breaches could allow Israeli and foreign criminals and terrorists to enter the country. There are known incidents in which people entered Israel by taking advantage of security breaches. 3.2. Overflight Risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. Asia 4.1. New Zealand pilot hostage Papua In the Indonesian region of West Papua, independence fighters have taken a New Zealand pilot hostage. The pilot is taken hostage due to political motives. The indepence fighters will only free the pilot if the country of Indonesia acknowledges the freedom of West Papua. On the 24th of April, a video message appeared in which the pilot was visible and talking, and the pilot is still alive and “healthy”. 4.2. Regional instability Political instability in some countries have led to recurring protests, particularly in Myanmar and Nagorno-Karabakh. Instabilities in some countries prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. This ranges from minimum flight levels to security issues on the ground. Africa 5.1. Conflict in Sudan On 15 April, deadly fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out in Sudan. Due to the conflict, Sudan remains closed to all civilian flights. HSSK/Khartoum airport is closed. 5.2. Overflight risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. North America 6.1. Gold heist at Toronto Pearson International Airport On 17 April, more than $15M worth of dollars of gold and valuables were stolen at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The aircraft container, containing the gold, was transported to a cargo holding facility. The police believe that the heist took place in this process. 6.2. Shot at small aircraft in Alabama On 20 May, an aircraft that is used for spraying pesticides was shot at in Alabama. The aircraft was hit by one bullet while in operation. South America 7.1. Airport shooting at José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. On 17 May, there was a shooting inside the José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. The event occurred in the migration area of the airport. 7.2. Drug trafficker escaped at José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. The authorities in Colombia are searching for a Serbian drug trafficker who escaped the José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín, on May 18. The drug trafficker escaped the immigration custody after asking to buy water. Oceania 8.1. Drug smuggling with small aircraft in Queensland On 21 March, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) arrested five members of a criminal syndicate organization for arranging a black flight and carrying 52 kilograms of illegal methamphetamine. For the trafficking, a twin-engine Beechcraft light aircraft has been used. Forecast The threats to the business aviation sector between April 2023 and May 2023 are likely to pose continuing threats in the coming months. Climate protestors are likely to continue targeting business aviation worldwide and pose risks to airport security. Steps are being taken by the authorities to reduce the incidents of commercial drones disrupting airspaces. In Asia and South America, continuing instability and the use of aviation for human smuggling and drug trafficking is widespread throughout the region. The security risks identified are likely to pose threats for the foreseeable future. Recognizing the potential risks and creating scenarios are vital for security for the business aviation sector. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Drug trafficking is still a present risk for business aviation. For organized crime groups and cartels, business aviation is sometimes the preferred method of transportation when compared to commercial aviation. Due to the association of drug trafficking with profitability for crime organizations, firearm smuggling and use in terrorist organizations, the drug trafficking world is considered as dangerous as terrorism. There are several cases of drugs, or other objects, trafficking by cabin and flight crew on commercial flights. It is possible that cabin or flight crew on private jets could smuggle too. Keep it in mind and be vigilant. 1.2. Human trafficking With human trafficking still being a major issue to this day, the involvement of business aircraft is to be expected. In commercial aviation steps have been made and are still being made in recent years to improve the awareness and by that prevention of human trafficking. While steps being made is an objectively good thing, it does have the potential to push human traffickers into finding other solutions. One of these solutions for human traffickers is business/private aviation. If one can overcome the increased costs of such an operation compared to trafficking via commercial aviation, it allows for flights to smaller airports with less experienced and not as many employees as on a major commercial airport. Additionally, in countries which are not as stable as one would hope, it is easier to bribe or even blackmail customs agents/border guards to turn a blind eye to what you are doing. Europe 2.1. Private jet ban Schiphol Airport On the 4th of April, Schiphol Airport announced a proposal for a private jet ban at the airport. Under the new proposal, the ban will come into effect no later than 2025-2026 and private jets will no longer be welcome at Schiphol Airport. Also, aircraft take-off and landings between midnight and 5 a.m. will not be allowed in the new proposal. Plans for a new runway have also been scrapped. The serie of measures have been suggested by Schiphol Airport, to reduce its air traffic and to create a quieter, cleaner, and better system. The reason for targeting private aviation is the “disproportionate amount of noise nuisance and CO2 emissions per passenger”. In the past edition of REBASE, there was a paragraph about the flight reduction at Schiphol Airport for the 2023-2024 season. However, the Court of North Holland ruled that the state did not follow the right procedure before announcing the contraction at Schiphol Airport. The court has scrapped the plan of the Dutch Government. Despite the decision of the court, the threat of flight cuts still exists. 2.2. “Suspected drone” cause disruption at London Gatwick Airport On the 14th of May, operations were suspended at London Gatwick Airport after a suspected drone was seen close to the airfield. During the 50 minute suspension, twelve inbound aircraft were diverted to other airports. There have been several drone incidents in the past few months. Experts are working on systems to prevent drone disruption operations at major airports, there is no clarity on these systems yet. 2.3. Letzte Generation spray paint on small aircraft On 5 May climate activists from Letzte Generation Germany sprayed orange paint on a privately owned Piper PA-23-250 at Berlin Brandenburg Airport. The climate activists were active on the airside, it is unclear how the activists accessed the airside. ‘Letzte Generation Germany’ has stated on their Twitter account that the “Excessive luxury of the super-rich is at the expense of the majority and we should not put up with it one day longer”. Airport security was present during the action. 2.4. Climate activists Greenpeace disruption at EBACE On 23 May, dozens of climate activists from different associations disrupted Europe’s largest private jet trade fair “EBACE” at Geneva Airport. The climate activists were part of various associations, including Greenpeace, Stay Grounded, Extinction Rebellion, and Scientist Rebellion. The climate activists chained themselves to the private aircraft to protest against the sector’s carbon emissions. The flights at Geneva Airport were suspended for an hour, with further delays expected throughout the day. The climate activists were removed by police and private security, which allowed the reopening of the static display with the aircraft. According to the climate activists, business aviation is the most harmful means of transportation for the climate and only a small part of the population can afford it. Climate activists protest for banning private aircraft. Middle East 3.1. Security breach Ben-Gurion Airport A State Auditor Report points to security breaches at Tel-Aviv Ben-Gurion Airport. The security breaches could allow Israeli and foreign criminals and terrorists to enter the country. In addition, the report noted that there are known incidents in which people entered Israel by taking advantage of these breaches. The associable sections of the report note that the security breaches are the result of airport authorities not applying the necessary procedures. The procedures are set by the Population and Immigration Authority to prevent security breaches at the border control posts. It is unclear how many people have managed to go through the checkpoints by taking advantage of the security breaches, and what the identity is of these people. 3.2. Overflight Risks Developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures. These include an advised minimum flight level of 320 over Iraq, with a focus on Baghdad. Additionally, GPS interference is to be expected when overflying the country as well as Lebanon, Turkey and Israël. Iranian airspace remains unsafe for Western aviation to use, with the same applying to Afghanistan (except for P500/G500), Yemen and Syria. Overflying Saudi Arabia is safe, as long as flying above FL260. Asia 4.1. Pilot held hostage in West Papua (Indonesia) The pilot taken hostage around four months ago in West Papua is still being held by his captors. The fate of his passengers is known by now, as they were released by the separatists for being locals to the region. There was no news heard from him until the 10th of March, when a video was released where he appeared alive. The demands made by the separatists for his release is that Indonesia recognizes West Papua as separate from Indonesia. On the 24th of April, a video message appeared in which the pilot was visible and talking, and the pilot is still alive and “healthy”. The pilot called for a stop to the ongoing airstrikes by the Indonesian authorities in the Nduga Recency region. The attacks could put his life as well as others at risk. For now, no end is in sight to his captivity. 4.2. Regional instability Myanmar is a country that has been troubled for a long time, a recent development however is that it is advisable to overfly Myanmar at a minimum flight level of 320. This is because of anti air weapons present in the country, in combination with the combative nature of the country at this point in time. The Nagorno-Karabakh region still holds a security threat, as it has shown many examples of combat flaring up without warning. There are many anti air systems located in this region, capable of engaging aircraft at great heights. Thus, overflying this region should be avoided. Africa 5.1. Conflict in Sudan On 15 April, deadly fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out in Sudan. Despite a ceasefire agreed at the end of April, there is ongoing fighting between the government and militant forces. Due to the conflict, Sudan remains closed to all civilian flights. HSSK/Khartoum airport is closed. For South Sudan, air navigation services remain suspended above FL245. In South Sudan, there are poor ATC provisions for overflight below FL245. Due to the risk of anti-aircraft weaponry and military activity in Sudan, it is advised to operators to not enter the Sudan airspace. The primary risk is the security on the ground for any unplanned diversions to the airports in Sudan. Also, there have been reports of civilian- and military aircraft being targeted, by gunfire, at HSSK/Khartoum. 5.2. Overflight risks Overflying Africa comes with its own risks differing per country, with Libya being the only one with a do no fly advisory. There are several countries which can be overflown while sticking to a security advisory. Egypt, with an advice to fly above flight level 300 over the Sinai region due to anti air systems being in the hands of terrorist organizations in the region. Ethiopia, the Tigray region remains unstable even though an official peace deal was signed in November. In this region too are anti air systems. The advice is to avoid overflying the region. Somalia, the advice here too is to not overfly the country below a flight level of 300, this is because of the instability in the country in combination with the presence of anti air systems. Kenya, the border region has an overspill effect of the civil war in Somalia, thus posing the same threat as in Somalia itself, to not fly below flight level 300. Mali, here too is an advice to not fly below flight level 300 over the country, because of the presence of anti air systems in the hands of militants. Western Sahara, Due to the conflict in the region between Morocco and the independence movement in the region, there is a risk of anti air weaponry in the region, the advice is to stick to a flight level of 200 or more. North America 6.1. Gold heist at Toronto Pearson International Airport On 17 April, more than $15M dollars of gold and valuables were stolen at Toronto Pearson International Airport. The airport in Toronto is often used to ship gold mined in the province of Ontario. The aircraft container, containing the gold, was transported to a cargo holding facility. The police believe that the heist took place in this process. It is still unknown what airlines shipped the cargo, where the load came from, or the intended destination. The airport stated that the thieves did not gain access to the airport, but accessed the public side of a warehouse that is leased to a third party. This warehouse area is outside the primary security line of the airport. The heist is not considered as a public safety matter and passengers are not in danger. It is not the first time that a Toronto area airport made headlines for a gold heist. 6.2. Shot at small aircraft in Alabama On 20 May, an aircraft that is used for spraying pesticides was shot at in Alabama. The aircraft was hit by one bullet while in operation. It is unknown who shot at the aircraft and there were no casualties. South America 7.1. Airport shooting at José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. On 17 May, there was a shooting inside the José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. According to unofficial sources, the suspects have tried to rescue a person who was in the official custody of authorities. The event occurred in the migration area of the airport. There were no casualties and the air terminal has not ruled on the events, there were no disruptions in the airport operations. 7.2. Drug trafficker escaped at José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín. The authorities in Colombia are searching for a Serbian drug trafficker who escaped the José Mariá Córdova Airport in Medellín, on May 18. The drug trafficker escaped the immigration custody after asking to buy water. Then the Serbian slipped past the authorities and ran out of the airport, where accomplices waited. Mrdeza, the suspect, is an alleged member of an Italian-based criminal organization that ships drugs from South America to Europe. During the escape, multiple shots were fired by the police and Mrdeza’s accomplices. There are no wounded or casualties. Mrdeza was arrested the week before, on 10 May, after arriving on a flight from Punta Cana, and Italy asked for extradition. Colombian migration decided to remove Mrdeza from the country. Oceania 8.1. Drug smuggling with small aircraft in Queensland On 21 March, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) arrested five members of a criminal syndicate organization for arranging a black flight and carrying illegal methamphetamine. For the trafficking, a twin-engine Beechcraft light aircraft has been used back and forth from Papua New Guinea to Australia. It is suspected that the aircraft flew under the radar with the transponder switched off, on the return trip to Monto, where the Specialist AFP and Queensland Police intercepted the aircraft. The Police located and seized five duffle bags concealed in the aircraft, containing about 52 kilograms of methamphetamine.

Date: 06/06/2023 Location: Serbia and Kosovo Parties involved: Kosovo government, Serbian government, ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, NATO/KFOR troops. The Events: The tensions between ethnic Serbians and ethnic Albanians in Kosovo have been reignited since December 2022 after an incident concerning license plates that were produced in Serbia and handed out to ethnic Serbs in Kosovo. Kosovo did not recognize the license plates as legal and told Serbia to stop producing them. This shortly led to a border dispute between the two countries. Through negotiations with EU representatives the dispute was resolved. But the ethnic tensions did not go away. On 23/04/2023 local elections in four ethnic Serb majority municipalities were held. Ethnic Serbs decided to boycott the election and there was only a turn-out of 3.8%. This meant that four ethnic Albanian mayors were elected and this angered the ethnic Serbs. On 26/05/2023 ethnic Serbs gathered in front of the municipal buildings in Zvecan, Zubin Potok and Leposavic, all in northern Kosovo, to protest against the installation of the Albanian leaders of the three Serb-majority municipalities after the boycotted elections. The Kosovar police used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse the protesters in Zvecan. On the same day, Serbia’s military was put on high alert and troops were deployed close to the border with Kosovo. France, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States criticized the use of force by the Kosovar authorities and expressed their concerns about Serbia’s decision to put its military on high alert in a joint statement. Protests against the installation of the Albanian leaders continued over the weekend. On 29/05/2023, more riots broke out in the Kosovo city of Zvecan. Ethnic Serbs clashed with KFOR peacekeepers during a protest and over 30 KFOR peacekeepers as well as 52 ethnic Serbs were injured. NATO, which is in charge of the KFOR peacekeeping mission, has responded by sending 700 extra troops to Kosovo. On 01/06/2023 the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, and its Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, stated that they are open to new mayoral elections in four municipalities in the north of Kosovo that are Serb-dominated. The statement followed pressure from French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the EU, who called for new elections. Meanwhile, there have been large protests in the Serbian capital Belgrade. Protests have erupted because of two mass shootings in the beginning of May 2023. These protests, that are targeting the government of President Vucic, are likely to continue in the coming weeks. Analysis and implications: It is likely that Serbian President Vucic, who is under constant pressure of protests in his country, is using the crisis in Zvecan as a distraction for internal problems. But the pressure from the EU, the US and NATO on both Serbia and Kosovo will have an effect on Vucic’s decisions whether or not to militarily intervene in Kosovo. It seems that a large part of the Serbian population has no taste for an increase in military tension between the two countries. In the meantime it seems that the pressure from the EU and US on Kosovo is having the desired effect of calming the situation down. With the addition of 700 NATO troops to the region, to help with safeguarding the situation in Zvecan, the two sides seem to be ready to sit at the negotiating table. One of the results of these negotiations is that there is a likely chance of new mayoral elections coming to the north of Kosovo. If these elections are seen as fair by the ethnic Serbians in areas like Zvecan it is likely that the tensions between the two countries will diminish for at least a short period of time until the next crisis happens. Ethnic Serbian nationalism in the North of Kosovo has been growing more and more violent recently and there have been assaults on ethnic Albanians in Serbian dominated neighborhoods in, for instance, Mitrovice. Nationalist hooligan groups have attacked several ethnic Albanians and these same hooligans seem to form a large part of the violent crowd at the riots in Zvecan. These hooligans have been seen using military grade stun grenades wrapped in plastic foil with metal ball bearings in them. Several KFOR soldiers have been seriously wounded by these stun grenades. The President of Kosovo has blamed the Serbian government for supplying the hooligans with weapons. Whether this is true or not is difficult to surmise. Concluding notes: It is likely that the tension between Kosovo and Serbia will decrease as the negotiations will continue. The pressure that is given by the US, the EU and NATO is hard to ignore for the two parties who both have aspirations of becoming more and more involved in European affairs. However, it is not likely that the ethnic Serbians in Kosovo will soften their stance any time soon. The tensions between the two ethnic groups, Serbian and Albanian, are high. A new round of elections might diffuse the situation in the short term, but in the long term there seems to be no decline in hostilities between the two ethnic groups. Serbia will feel the need to support ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and it will be hard for Serbia not to put military pressure on Kosovo. President Vucic of Serbia is also likely to want to keep diverting attention away from internal political struggles and pressure on his position by feeding the tensions between the two countries. It is unlikely however that this will actually lead to a military confrontation, especially because that would mean a direct confrontation with KFOR/NATO troops that are in Kosovo to keep the peace. Serbia will not be militarily able to win such a confrontation, especially with Russia, its long-time supporter, engaged in a costly war in Ukraine. It is not likely that the two countries will be friendly towards each other in the near future.

Date: 15/06/2023 Location: Europe (excluding countries that have not been surveyed by others or are featured in this brief) Parties involved: Europe, Jewish community, far-right groups. The definition of antisemitism used in this document is according to the (IHRA) International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance: “Anti-Semitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.” We have excluded general critique of Israeli politics as Anti-Semitism. We have though included holding all Jews responsible for the actions of the Israeli government as Anti-Semitism. The numbers and trends quoted in this brief are from publications by the ADL (Anti-Defamation League), the German and Austrian government, the European Union and other institutions. The Events: According to several surveys, published recently and made by governmental and non-governmental organizations, there is a rise in Anti-Semitic violence and harassment in Europe. The surveys cover the years 2021 and 2022 and detail different forms of Anti-Semitic violence and point at a trend of rising Anti-Semitism since 2015. There is a trend of stabilization, and even decline, of Anti-Semitic beliefs in general. But there is an obvious increase of physical Anti-Semitic violence in Europe. In Ukraine there is a large decline in Anti-Semitic beliefs since the election of a Jewish president. It seems that his outspoken stand against the Russian invasion of his country has given a boost in respect for Jews and Jewish culture. In Austria, the total number of Anti-Semitic incidents in 2022 decreased by 25% in comparison to 2021. However, the total number of incidents in 2022 was increasingly higher than in 2019 and 2020. Especially the number of reports that concerned physical violence was higher than in the previous years. According to the Antisemitismus Meldstelle, there has been a flare-up of Anti-Semitic violence by children against other children in Austria. Throughout the year 2022 there have been a number of incidents involving Holocaust Remembrance monuments being defiled or vandalized across Europe. In Milan, for instance, a mural depicting the popular cartoon show characters The Simpsons as victims of a Nazi death camp was vandalized by unknown actors who blacked out the yellow stars of David on their clothing. In Thessaloniki, a well known Holocaust monument was defiled with a swastika and a White Power symbol. Across Europe, there were at least a dozen of these forms of incidents in 2022. Holocaust museums and memorial places have been forced to take extra security measures, especially after Neo-Nazi graffiti was found at the Auschwitz death camp monument in 2021. This led to the instalment of CCTV systems across a great many monuments across Poland, Germany and other countries. According to the ADL Index, Anti-Semitism in the Netherlands is relatively low. However, this still translates into a number of 1 million Dutch adults that harbor Anti-Semitic opinions. Anti-Semitism is also prevalent in Dutch high schools, where 42% of teachers have been confronted with Anti-Semitic statements and the denial or minimization of the Holocaust. Research institute Panteia concluded that the Anti-Semitic statements of high school students are often related to soccer, in which the Jewish community is insulted on a regular basis. In May 2023, the Dutch police arrested 154 supporters of the Dutch soccer club AZ after they sang Anti-Semitic songs in the subway in Amsterdam. The Dutch coordinator that is responsible for combating Anti-Semitism stated that Anti-Semitic statements in the context of soccer trickle down to other parts of society. In 2022 there was a significant rise of European Jews making the so-called Aliyah, or repatriation, to Israel. About 70.000 Jews decided to leave their home country and start a new life in Israel. A large number of these people, called Olim, came from Russia and Ukraine as a result of the war, but there were also a considerable amount of Olim from countries like France and Great Britain. The rise in antisemitic behavior and violence being quoted as the main reason for Jews leaving their home country. Analysis and implications: In general, Anti-Semitic beliefs are held more firmly in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe, with Ukraine being an exception as of late. Countries like Poland and Hungary are in the top countries where Anti-Semitic beliefs are being held. The most common Anti-Semitic belief right now is that Jews are more loyal to the country of Israel than to their home country. This seems to be the trend across the entirety of Europe and is not localized to one region. The physical violence against Jews comes mainly from the extreme-right, like Neo-Nazi groups and like-minded white supremacist organizations. Only a small percentage of Anti-Semitic violence comes from people and groups with a Muslim background and it is usually connected to politics in Israel and the Palestinian territories. It seems that countries with a predominantly conservative Christian population have more problems with Anti-Semitism. This can be seen as a continuation of old Anti-Semitic tropes that arose in the Middle Ages and have continued to be a part of Christian tradition. The political Left seems to conflate Israeli politics with the Jewish community as a whole and there have been incidents where, mainly Orthodox, Jews were insulted or attacked as an act of anti-Israeli politics. A new group with Anti-Semitic beliefs is the so-called anti-vax community that originated during the height of the Covid pandemic and mainly deals in conspiracy theories that have their roots in Anti-Semitic tropes like the blood-libel and the presumed existence of a shadow world government. Most of these conspiracy theories can be traced back to the Middle Ages but a large part comes directly from the “Protocols of the Elders of Zion'' which is an Anti-Semitic document written by the Russian Tsarist political police at the beginning of the twentieth century and speaks of a global Jewish conspiracy to take over the world through a set of premeditated events. The anti-vax protestors, also known as anti-authority protestors, are known for wearing the star of David on their clothing and have used images on posters and banners depicting Anti-Semitic tropes. Some acts of vandalism and threats to Jewish objects and the community have come from these groups or individuals connected to this movement. The rise of physical violence against Jews, the Jewish community and places associated with Jewish culture is causing feelings of insecurity in the Jewish community. This has led to an increase in Jews making an Aliyah to Israel. It has also led to an increase of security measures taken by the Jewish community across Europe to protect Jewish sites and institutions. Jewish advocacy groups have complained that European governments and security institutions do not take the threat to the Jewish community seriously enough and therefore have taken matters into their own hands. Concluding notes: It is not likely that Anti-Semitic beliefs in Europe will decline in the coming years. There seems to be a stabilization in Anti-Semitic beliefs across the board. There are concerns in the Jewish community however that it will only get worse as new generations of Europeans are growing up with less knowledge and experience concerning the Holocaust. The ever escalating situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories can also add to a rise in acts of vandalism and violence against the Jewish community from groups who act out of solidarity with the Palestinian community and who do not see the difference between the Jewish community and the Israeli government. The decline in Anti-Semitic behavior in Ukraine shows that Anti-Semitic beliefs are not hardwired in the European culture and it shows that antisemitism can actually positively evolve into a more positive view on the Jewish community as a whole. With more pressure coming from the Jewish community on governments and security institutions to make an upgrade in securing Jewish objects there is a chance that physical violence and vandalism will become less in the coming years. The installation of CCTV systems across Europe near Jewish objects will undoubtedly also contribute to a feeling of security in the Jewish community.

Date: 08/06/2023 Location: The Middle East Parties involved: Iran, Israel, Syria, Saudi-Arabia, Yemen, United States. The Events: On 10/03/2023, in an historic first, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore their diplomatic ties, which have been in a bad state for decades. In many areas both countries have been opponents of each other and the two countries have supported opposing parties in multiple conflicts, like for instance in Yemen and Syria. The deal can be seen as a first sign of the decrease in tensions. The improvement of diplomatic relations between the two countries provides an opportunity for Iran to step out of a relatively isolated position on the world stage that it has held for the past years. For Saudi Arabia, the deal provides a way to protect itself, as well as other Gulf States, against attacks from Iran, as there will be more possibilities to negotiate over disagreements that will likely pop-up in the near future. On 12/04/2023 it was reported by news agency Reuters that Iran had been smuggling weapons and military equipment to Syria under the disguise of relief aid for the Syrian regions affected by February earthquakes. The deliveries were meant to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and to strengthen Iran’s defense capabilities against Israel in Syria. According to Reuters, the secret deliveries went on for 7 weeks. On 05/05/2023 Iran and Syria renewed their diplomatic and military relations emphasizing that Syria is an important ally to Iran. Israel then accused Iran of delivering more and more weapons to Syria and to Syria aligned terrorist organizations like Hezbollah in recent months. On 07/05/2023 the Foreign ministers from the Arab League member states voted in favor of the reinstatement of Syria’s membership, after Syria was suspended from the Arab League for more than 10 years. The return to the Arab League is a political victory for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as the allowance to return signals the acceptance by regional actors that Assad's government has survived in Syria. On 14/05/2023 Iran summoned the Iraqi ambassador to complain about the lack of effort on the Iraqi side on combating terrorist organizations that target Iran. Though not mentioned specifically, it is believed that Iran has problems with the Kurdish organizations in the North of Iraq. According to Iran the Iraqi Kurds are directly responsible for domestic attacks in Iran. On 26/05/2023 Israel’s National Security Advisor warned that Israel will do a pre-emptive strike on Iran if it continues with the development of a nuclear warhead. Iranian leaders in return have warned that they will make sure that Israel will face a multi-front war if it dares to attack Iran, suggesting that Iran and Syria will attack from the east and Hezbollah will attack from Lebanon in the north. Countering this threat, Israel’s prime-minister Netanyahu emphasized that it is prepared for a multi-front war. On 29/05/2023 Israel allegedly launched a series of airstrikes on Iranian IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps) targets in and near Damascus, Syria. The airstrikes are part of an ongoing campaign against weapons convoys and caches, IRGC compounds and installations, and Hezbollah camps. On 29/05/2023 Israel launched an extensive military drill in the north of Israel called “Operation Firm Hand”. The IAF and IDF (Israeli Air Force and Israeli Defense Forces) will simulate attacks deep behind enemy lines and simulate how to fight a multi-front war. This drill is seen as a message to the Iranian government to back down on its threatening rhetoric. On 06/06/2023 the Iranian government unveiled a new, allegedly hypersonic, missile called the Fattah. According to Iran the missile can reach speeds up to Mach 15 and can hit Israel in 400 seconds whilst outmaneuvering air-defense systems and even destroying those systems. Analysis: It is likely that Iran will continue to expand its influence on the Middle-East. The IRGC is a semi-autonomous military entity within Iran and is responsible for fighting Iran’s proxy wars against Israel and the West in general. The IRGC is likely to increase its activities in Syria in the coming months. This will undoubtedly lead to more airstrikes from Israel on Syrian soil and retaliatory strikes from IRGC affiliated Syrian and Palestinian militants. Iran and Israel are not likely to decrease their rhetoric towards each other in the coming weeks or months. With Israel getting Operation Firm Hand under way and Iran unveiling its new Fattah hypersonic missile, it seems that the two countries are headed for an actual confrontation in the near future. Peace negotiations are taking place behind closed doors with the US and Saudi-Arabia leading the talks. But it seems that neither Iran or Israel are inclined to back down on their rhetoric with both countries also trying to deflect national- and international attention away from internal political struggles. The right-wing government of prime-minister Netanyahu of Israel is under a lot of scrutiny for trying to pass a judicial reform bill that would essentially grant the sitting government unilateral power to pass decisions with the Supreme Court not being able to interfere. This reform bill has led to massive protests across the country. These protests forced Netanyahu to freeze the bill for the time being. The protests however have continued with the demand that the bill be taken out instead of frozen for now. Netanyahu and his ministers and advisors have been trying to deflect attention away from the domestic troubles by focusing on Iran’s development of a nuclear warhead. In Iran there has been a constant wave of protests against the strict Islamic rulership in the country. With the deaths and detentions of many protestors, whose demand is that the Islamic regime stops enforcing strict Islamic laws on, especially, women, the protests continue to this day. The Iranian regime has cracked down on the protests with unprecedented violence, but still the protests continue. It is unlikely that they will diminish anytime soon. The Iranian government has, not unlike the Israeli government, tried to deflect attention away from their domestic problems by focusing on its rivalry with Israel. An open confrontation between Iran and Israel will lead to a multi-front war in the Middle-East with countries like Syria and Lebanon being pulled into the conflict. It is unclear whether other Arab nations will stay neutral or will support one of the sides in such a conflict. Historically Arab nations have banded together to form a bloc against Israel, but in recent years Israel has signed, or will sign, multiple treaties with Arab countries like the UAE and Saudi-Arabia. Historically there is peace with Egypt and Jordan. The United States will undoubtedly try to use its influence in the region to calm all parties involved, but it seems that more and more the Arab nations and Israel no longer blindly follow the United States lead. Conclusion: With tensions running high between the two countries it is not likely the rhetoric on both sides will die down in the coming weeks or months. It is likely Israel will continue its air-strikes on IRGC targets in Syria as Iran will increase its IRGC presence in the same country. There is a chance of Israel initiating a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s presumed nuclear capabilities in the near future. This could lead to a regional conflict in the Middle-East with countries like Syria and Lebanon being sucked into a multi-front war against Israel. The past negotiations, initiated by the United States and its Arab allies, have led to cooler heads on both sides of the conflict, but it seems that Israel and Iran want to make independent decisions, ignoring international pressure. With domestic political problems in both countries on an all time high, leaders of both countries are more than happy to draw attention away from their political struggles and draw attention to the conflict between the two countries. Any such conflict will be devastating for the region as both countries have professional and well-equipped armies. There is no clear indication as to who would be victorious in such a conflict, but there is no doubt that it will have an enormous impact on the people, economy and environment of the countries involved and affected by such a war.